11 May

JOBS

General

Posted by: Bill Yeung

Jobless Rate Remains At 40-Year Low As Wage Growth Accelerates

Statistics Canada announced this morning that employment was virtually unchanged in April (down 1,100) following a surge in March and the unemployment rate remained at 5.8%–its lowest level in four decades. Wages growth accelerated signalling tight labour markets. April’s stall was only the second time since mid-2016 that the job market did not grow.

On a positive note, the job losses were in part-time work, which registered a 30,000 downfall. Full-time employment was up 28,800, which is near average over the past 12 months
When labour markets approach full capacity, job growth stalls as job vacancies become increasingly more difficult to fill. This excess demand for labour pushes up wage rates to lure qualified workers from other jobs.

This trend poses a substantial challenge for the Bank of Canada as inflation is now at or above its 2% target. Economic activity has slowed this year, and considerable uncertainty remains, especially concerning NAFTA. In the face of a meaningful slowdown in housing and consumer spending, the Bank is reticent to hike interest rates too quickly as mortgage rates are already rising.

The posted five-year fixed mortgage rate rose to 5.34% this week, as banks have tightened credit conditions and five-year bond yields have edged upward. Borrowers must qualify for mortgages based on the posted mortgage rate, and one-in-three borrowers have purportedly already been squeezed out of the housing market.

Apropos the housing slowdown, employment declines were most significant in the construction industry, which suffered an 18,900 job loss offsetting the gains in March. Services-related employment was up 14,800 in April.
Since the start of the year, Canada’s labour force has shrunk by 25,500, and the number of jobs is down by 41,400.

The average hourly wage in April was C$27.02, up 3.6% from a year earlier. That’s the fastest pace of growth since 2012.

Employment Was Little Changed In Most Provinces

In April, 4,100 more people worked in Manitoba, all in full-time employment. The unemployment rate was virtually unchanged at 6.1%. Compared with April 2017, the number of employed people in the province increased by 5,900 (+0.9%).

In Nova Scotia, employment increased by 2,700 in April. The unemployment rate continued on a downward trend, falling by 0.7 percentage points to 6.7%, the lowest rate since comparable data became available in 1976. On a year-over-year basis, employment was up 8,000 (+1.8%), primarily due to a strong upward trend in full-time employment that began in the autumn of 2017.

There were 4,900 fewer employed people in Saskatchewan in April, and the unemployment rate rose 0.5 percentage points to 6.3%. Compared with April 2017, employment was little changed in the province.
In Ontario, employment held steady in April, and the unemployment rate was little changed at 5.6%. On a year-over-year basis, employment in the province rose by 133,000 or 1.9%, all in full-time work.

In Quebec, both employment and the unemployment rate were little changed in April. Compared with 12 months earlier, the number of people working in the province was up 73,000, mainly as a result of growth in the second and fourth quarters of 2017. Over the same period, the unemployment rate declined by 1.0 percentage points to 5.4%.

The number of people working in British Columbia was little changed in April, as growth in full-time work was offset by a decline in part-time employment. At the same time, the unemployment rate increased by 0.3 percentage points to 5.0% as more people looked for work. Employment in the province has been relatively flat since June 2017, while on a year-over-year basis it was up 23,000 (+0.9%).

Dr. Sherry Cooper
Chief Economist, Dominion Lending Centres
10 May

Are You Prepared for the Top Cybersecurity Threats of 2018?

General

Posted by: Bill Yeung

Are You Prepared for the Top Cybersecurity Threats of 2018?

Are You Prepared for the Top Cybersecurity Threats of 2018?

David Hold | May 01, 2018

As if your IT team, security experts and executives didn’t have enough to worry about, there are a host of new cybersecurity threats hitting the market or escalating globally. In response, companies are expected to spend more than $1 trillion on cybersecurity in the next three years.

Key Facts on Cybersecurity in 2018

•  Companies will spend $1 trillion on cybersecurity in the next five years.
•  Whaling or business email compromises cost businesses $5 billion.
•  Ransomware, including ransoms and downtime, tops $5 billion in impact.
•  IoT security spending is predicted to surpass a half billion dollars this year. 

At a recent cybersecurity conference, a top executive from an American firm told a terrifying story. His company had been undergoing a series of high-profile merges and acquisitions. Much of the activity was kept under wraps, to prevent the competition from moving in.

One morning, the company’s controller was in the office working on the month-end close. The CFO was traveling in a different time zone and not easy to reach. An urgent message appeared in the controller’s inbox, stating that a time-sensitive and top secret deal had been approved.

It included details for a large sum of money to be wired immediately. As the controller picked up his phone to call the CFO for approval, his office phone rang.

The caller identified himself as a consultant from a top firm that had been working with the company on different ventures. The person’s name wasn’t familiar, but the consulting firm was.

The caller stated that he had just spoken with the CFO, and she had asked him to call the controller to walk him through the transfer. If the funds weren’t in an account in mere minutes, the deal, the controller’s job, and the company’s very future was in peril.

Luckily, rather than take immediate action, the controller put his caller on hold and ran down to the hall to the CEO. He was in the office and didn’t know anything about the deal. They quickly called the CFO, and it became clear that this was a case of “whaling.”

A disaster was narrowly averted thanks to the quick thinking of an employee. Yet many companies have hit headlines in recent years after employees have fallen for similar scams.

Let’s take a look at the top cybersecurity threats for 2018 – and what companies can do to prepare and protect their assets.

Make sure to check out our previous cybersecurity posts “4 Tips for Defending Against Cyber Threats” and “Our Top 10 Healthcare Cybersecurity Questions.”

Email Security Compromises and HIPAA Violations

1. Whaling and Business Email Compromise (BEC)

So-called whaling, described above, has been identified as a significant threat. The FBI has been tracking this issue since 2013 and has seen a sharp escalation in just the past few years. Whaling occurs when criminals rely on deception to convince an unsuspecting company or employee that a request is legitimate.

They combine a variety of tactics, from technology that lets them spoof emails to gathering data online and via social media to effectively impersonate a decision maker. Social engineering and technology blend to create the ultimate threat.

In a statement, the FBI notes: “BEC is a serious threat on a global scale. And the criminal organizations that perpetrate these frauds are continually honing their techniques to exploit unsuspecting victims.”

The latest estimates reported by IDG suggest that whaling costs organizations more than $5 billion. 

The best ways to fight back against whaling are multifold. Employee education is critical. It’s also important to have clear business procedures that don’t allow large financial transactions or data transfers to occur without multiple sign-offs.

There should also be a procedure for reporting and investigating questionable requests when they are made.

Finally, there are email tools that alert users to potentially spoofed messages and even leverage watermarked “stationary” to indicate formal communications.

Ransomeware Cybersecurity Threats are Increasing in 2018

2. Ransomware locks down data

A ransomware attack usually starts innocently enough. A member of your team receives an email or visits a website. They download a file or click on a link. Suddenly, the entire computer system — or worse, company files or network — locks up.

A message appears. Unless a ransom is paid within a certain period of time, the data will remain locked and unavailable. It some cases, it will even be deleted if the ransom isn’t paid.

Ransomware becomes even more insidious when demands are paid and then further payment is demanded. When does it stop? Ransomware can paralyze an entire system and put your data at serious risk.

In the healthcare industry, ransomeware attacks have seriously impacted patient care. The threat to the bottom line also can’t be overlooked. It’s believed that ransomware cost more than $5 billion in damages in 2017 alone.

Companies are taking bold steps to prevent the inadvertent downloading of ransomware, from implementing employee education programs to using tools to help identify potential threats.

Encrypting files and maintaining cloud-based backups so that any compromised data exists in another setting can help reduce the impact and speed recovery if the unthinkable should occur.

Firewalls, virus protection and file scanning for email is also essential. Companies are also looking at encrypted fax as a better way to share documents, without the risk of spreading embedded ransomware often found in emails.

IOT networks cybersecurity risks

3. IoT networks are at risk

The Internet of Things (IoT) is predicted to grow to more than 20 billion connected devices by 2020 — and other estimates range even higher. These devices serve a wide variety of functions throughout the business world.

They collect and relay marketing information and customer data. Behind the scenes, they’re used for everything from monitoring the temperature in shipping containers to notifying companies before an equipment failure occurs.

They’re saving organizations a significant amount of money, and as a result, becoming central to the way companies do business.

Because IoT devices are connected, each and every point in that network of billions of little connected dots represents a potential access point for cybercriminals.

A top prediction for 2018 is that companies that rely on IoT devices are going to find these networks under attack.

IoT devices can be used to wreak havoc, overload networks or lock down essential equipment for financial gain.

In one telling example, a major Casino recently had its high-roller database hacked…the point of entry being an IoT temperature sensor the lobby aquarium that was overlooked by everyone, except for the fish, and the cyber-thieves.

In response, companies are spending over $500 million in IoT related cybersecurity activities.

Companies that are investing in the Internet of Things need to ensure that security is a top focus. Steps to take involve carefully vetting vendors for their security standards and ensuring that ongoing steps are being taken to prevent breaches.

Existing IoT networks should also be tested for vulnerabilities and issues, and have necessary upgrades made. Investments go much further when used for prevention than they do for damage control.

Identity verification to stop cyber theft

4. Identity verification matters

Techrepublic notes that a top potential threat is identity verification. Companies often rely on government systems or organizations such as the major credit bureaus to verify identity and gather data on customers, employees and partners.

Yet major breaches have shown that these systems aren’t failproof. Many companies have begun to take steps to find alternate ways to verify identities.

They write, “Forrester predicts that in 2018, we will see an expansion of identity verification services to large banks such as Bank of America, Capital One, Citi, and Wells Fargo. Researchers also said that customers will be able to use bank-issued credentials to log into government services. Blockchain will also likely emerge to help verify identities based on federated, consortium-based transaction data.”

To prepare for this, organizations should consider their reliance on these systems for identity verification. Developing an alternate strategy is key.

A number of companies are emerging — in some cases, based on blockchain technology — to provide identity verification services. Look for partners that have strong security services and can meet your business needs.

Coud fax helps improve busines -processes and workflows

5. Core business processes must be updated

The biggest cybersecurity topic this year isn’t exotic; it’s not about foreign entities disrupting elections or dealing with expensive upgrades. It’s the simple fact that many companies have outdated business processes that put them at risk.

One of the biggest trends now taking place is that IT directors and C-level management are taking a closer look at where vulnerabilities can occur in their organizations.

These include:

•  Ensuring that all data is backed up securely in an encrypted cloud system, with a reputable company;
•  Upgrading outdated fax procedures to use encrypted, digital faxing software that’s designed with cybersecurity and regulatory compliance in mind;
•  Developing employee education programs, to help introduce and train best practices into the workplace;
•  Creating schedules of testing for vulnerabilities on a regular basis and periodically making improvements.

Cybersecurity is finally becoming a top consideration for many businesses, whether they’re maintaining existing IT infrastructure or upgrading to emerging next-gen technology.

They are learning to take proactive steps to understand and anticipate the growing threat environment in order to effectively safeguard private customer information now, and for the foreseeable future.

9 May

RATES HELD STEADY NOW, BUT

General

Posted by: Bill Yeung

RATES HELD STEADY NOW, BUT GRADUAL HIKES SIGNALLED

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) met this week for the second time under the chairmanship of Jerome Powell. In a unanimous decision, the Committee left the target range for the federal funds rate unchanged at 1-1/2 to 1-3/4 percent. Unlike the Bank of Canada, which has a single objective of targeting inflation at roughly 2 percent, the Fed has a dual statutory mandate to both foster price stability and maximum employment.

U.S. labour conditions remain strong, and the economy continues to grow at a moderate pace. Inflation has now moved to close to 2 percent. The growth of household spending has moderated from their strong fourth-quarter pace, although business fixed investment continued to grow rapidly.

“The Committee expects that economic conditions will evolve in a manner that will warrant further gradual increases in the federal funds rate; the federal funds rate is likely to remain, for some time, below levels that are expected to prevail in the longer run. However, the actual path of the federal funds rate will depend on the economic outlook as informed by incoming data.”

The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury notes slipped slightly to 2.96 percent following the release of the statement, while the S&P 500 Index of U.S. stocks climbed to its highest level of the day and the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell.

U.S. economic growth cooled in the first quarter to an annualized pace of 2.3 percent after averaging higher than 3 percent in the previous three quarters.

Expectations are that the Fed will hike rates once again at the next meeting in June. The Fed signaled in March that they expect to raise rates three or four times this year. They hiked the target federal funds rate three times last year and began to gradually reduce their holdings of securities.

The Bank of Canada will likely raise rates twice this year–probably in the summer and fall. As always, central bank policy will remain data dependent and will adjust with any significant changes in the economic backdrop. It is widely expected that the NAFTA negotiations will be satisfactorily completed in the near future, but that still remains a wildcard.

Increased U.S. protectionist fervour is a significant negative for the global economy. Today, 1,100 U.S. economists signed a letter to President Trump warning him of the dangers of tariffs, reminding him that the 1930 Smoot-Hawley tariffs led to a sustained economic depression.

Dr. Sherry Cooper

DR. SHERRY COOPER

Chief Economist, Dominion Lending Centres
Sherry is an award-winning authority on finance and economics with over 30 years of bringing economic insights and clarity to Canadians.

7 May

B.C Speculation Tax

General

Posted by: Bill Yeung

CMBA – BRITISH COLUMBIA  
ADVOCATING ON BEHALF OF OUR MEMBERS
MAY, 2018
BC GOVERNMENT URGED TO SCRAP THE SPECULATION TAX
The Canadian Mortgage Brokers Association – British Columbia was an early and vocal opponent of the BC government’s proposal to levy unfair new taxes on homeowners in communities across BC.

This campaign has been joined by several partner organizations, who combined effortshave facilitated the submission of over 14,406 letters to government.

CMBA-BC is pleased to be a part of an influential coalition of leading organziations calling for the BC government to Scrap The Speculation Tax, including:

  • UDI Capital Region, Pacific Region and Okanagan
  • Kelowna Chamber of Commerce
  • Independent Contractors of British Columbia
  • Canadian Home Builders Association – Central Okanagan
  • Nanaimo Chamber of Commerce
  • Peachland Chamber of Commerce
  • Business Council of British Columbia
  • Canadian Taxpayers Federation
  • Vancouver Island Construction Association
  • Okanagan Mainline Real Estate Board
  • Downtown Victoria Business Association
  • Uptown Rutland Business Association
  • Victoria Real Estate Board
1 May

SUBJECT TO FINANCING- A MUST!

General

Posted by: Bill Yeung

SUBJECT TO FINANCING- A MUST!

With most people who are new to real estate and looking for their first home (or possibly second), one of the most significant times is when your offer to buy is accepted by a seller. Unfortunately, that moment is quickly followed by stress, as not many people know what comes next- securing financing. 99% of the time a realtor will ask you if you have been qualified by a bank or a mortgage broker before they write an offer on your behalf. What should be told to you, the client, by the realtor and your mortgage broker is that you need to have a subject to financing condition in your offer.

In order for someone to receive a mortgage from a lender, they need to meet the lender’s (and some times the insurer’s) conditions. Usually, these all revolve around a borrower’s down payment money, their income as well as employment, and the property they are making an offer on. If you make an offer on a home and it is accepted, but for example the lender doesn’t like the property because the strata board doesn’t have enough money in their contingency fund to fix the leaking roof in the next 12 months, they could turn down your application and not lend you money.

If you don’t have the money, you don’t get the home. That is why you have a subject to financing condition, so if for any reason, you can’t meet the lender’s requirements with your income, down payment, or if the property is unacceptable to them or the insurer, you can cancel your offer without any hassle or loss of deposit.

What happens if you make a subject free offer? If you make an offer on a home and it doesn’t have a subject to financing condition in it, that house is now yours once the offer is accepted. Your deposit is no longer yours, and you have to come up with the remaining money. If you cannot and are unable to complete the purchase, the seller may file a lawsuit against you for damages as they have now taken their home off the market potentially losing out on the ability to sell their home to someone else while they waited for you to get financing.

Always, always, always have a condition in your offer that states subject to financing and allow yourself 3 to 5 business days. If you go in without that fail safe and it turns out you really need it, you will potentially be on the hook and if the seller wishes, he or she can sue you for any potential losses. Subject to financing is a must! If you have any questions, contact a Dominion Lending Centres mortgage professional.

Ryan Oake

RYAN OAKE

Dominion Lending Centres – Accredited Mortgage Professional
Ryan is part of DLC Producers West Financial based in Langley, BC.

More Posts – Website

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1 May

Rising Rates

General

Posted by: Bill Yeung

FIXED RATES ARE ON THE RISE. ARE YOU READY?

With the Bank of Canada holding rates steady this April, the same is not the case for the bond market, which impacts fixed rates.
In every interest-rate market there are many factors leading to and increase and we are hoping to provide a little bit of clarity on what is happening and what it means to you and your loved ones.
At this time, we see fixed rates increasing as the bond market increases, and our economists anticipate two more Bank of Canada increases of prime rate by the end of 2018.
Why do we note this information and how does it relate to you?

If you are in a variable rate, you will want to:
1. Review your lock-in options. Knowing it’s unlikely the prime rate will reduce and fixed rates are on the rise, there could be a sweet spot to review your options now.
2. If you decide not to lock in, it’s time to review your discount to see if a higher one can be obtained elsewhere.

Locking in won’t be for everyone, especially if you are making higher payments and your mortgage is below $300,000, which most people fit and will continue on that path. Locking in will be up to a 1% higher rate than you are likely presently paying.
If however rates raising another 50 basis points this year and knowing you can likely lock in below 4% now is most attractive to you, this may be your time. The next announcement from the BOC on Prime Rates is May 30th 2018

If you are in a fixed rate:
1. If you obtained your mortgage in the last year, stay put.
2. If you are looking to move up the property ladder or consolidate debt, get your application in to us ASAP so we can hold options for up to 120 days.
3. If you are up for renewal this year or know someone who is, secure your options now with us as we keep a watchful eye on the market.

Please reach out to a Dominion Lending Centres mortgage professional so we can help ensure you or a loved is on the right path in our ever changing market.

Angela Calla

ANGELA CALLA

Dominion Lending Centres – Accredited Mortgage Professional
Angela is part of DLC Angela Calla Mortgage Team based in Port Coquitlam, BC.

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19 Dec

Foreign Ownership

General

Posted by: Bill Yeung

Much Ado About Almost Nothing–Non-Resident Ownership of Housing

May's employment growth builds on gains since July 2016

Statistics Canada in conjunction with Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) released their first report this morning from the Canadian Housing Statistics Program (CHSP), providing data regarding the non-resident ownership of Canadian housing. This program was mandated by the last federal budget, filling in a significant data gap in housing statistics. For years, many have speculated that foreigners were the major culprits driving housing prices into nosebleed regions in Vancouver and Toronto. Today’s release shows that non-residents own less than five percent of housing in both cities.

Immigration remains a significant driver of housing activity in Canada. Canada has the most robust population growth in the G7, three-quarters of which is attributable to immigration and foreigners moving to Canada will be of growing importance in the future. But the report showed that non-residents – defined as both foreigners and Canadians whose principal residences are outside of Canada, irrespective of citizenship – are not the primary cause of the housing affordability problem in Canada’s two largest cities.

Many have blamed foreigners– mainly the Chinese–for the sky-high prices that have surged in the past three years–pricing many Millennials out of the housing market. A voter backlash spurred provincial governments to introduce a 15% tax on non-resident buyers in Vancouver (August 2016) and Toronto (April 2017), though earlier available data showed that foreign purchases were only between 5 and 10 percent of all home sales. In both regions, the tax slowed housing activity mainly by changing psychology. New listings surged, and buyers became more cautious as their options improved with more supply and lower prices. Other measures to slow housing activity by government and financial institution regulators have led many to assert that “boomers have priced millennials out of the housing market.”

Data revealed that non-residents (individuals whose principal dwelling is outside of Canada) owned 3.4% of all residential properties in the Toronto census metropolitan area (CMA), while the value of these homes accounted for 3.0% of the total residential property value in that metro area. In the Vancouver CMA, non-residents owned 4.8% of residential properties, accounting for 5.1% of total residential property value.
Estimates of non-resident ownership varied by property type. In both metropolitan areas, non-resident ownership was more prevalent for condominium-apartments. Non-residents owned 7.2% of condominium-apartments in the Toronto CMA and 7.9% of these units in the Vancouver CMA. By comparison, non-residents held 2.1% of single-detached houses in the Toronto CMA and 3.2% of single-detached homes in the Vancouver.
Over the past decade, home prices have accelerated markedly in Canada’s largest urban areas, particularly in Vancouver and Toronto. Data from the Canadian Real Estate Association Home Price Index show prices increased 173.7% in Vancouver from January 2005 to November 2017, while they rose 145.0% in Toronto over the same period. The last three years have been particularly telling, with house prices in Vancouver increasing by more than 60% and in Toronto by more than 40%, triggering great concern about housing affordability.
Below are two infographics produced by Statistics Canada giving more regional detail on non-resident ownership in Vancouver and Toronto. Breaking down the metro regions by municipalities, across the Vancouver CMA, non-resident ownership was most concentrated in the City of Vancouver (7.6%), followed by Richmond (7.5%) and West Vancouver (6.2%). In the Toronto CMA, the shares of non-resident owned properties were most substantial in the municipalities of Toronto (4.9%), followed by Richmond Hill (3.6%) and Markham (3.3%).
Largest Share of Non-Resident Ownership Is High-Price Condos
The most significant share of non-resident ownership in both CMAs was for condominiums, at 7.9% in the Vancouver and 7.2% in the Toronto. (See table below).
In Vancouver, almost two-thirds of non-resident owned properties were condominiums, while in Toronto, this share was close to half. Although the majority of condos were apartments, some were also single-detached houses, semi-detached houses and row houses.
Across the Vancouver CMA, 50.1% of condominium-apartments owned by non-residents were in the City of Vancouver, while 14.9% were in Richmond. In the Toronto CMA, non-resident owned condominium-apartments were primarily located in the City of Toronto (82.8%) and Mississauga (8.6%).
In the Vancouver CMA, the average value of a condominium-apartment owned by non-residents was 30.4% higher than that of a resident held condo-apartment. The City of Vancouver had the highest rate of non-resident ownership of condo-apartments within the CMA. The average value of these apartments was approximately $930,600, which was 25.6% higher than resident-owned.
The relative disparity between non-resident condo prices and resident condo prices in Toronto was much smaller than in Vancouver. In the Toronto CMA, non-resident owned condominium-apartments were on average 8.7% more expensive than resident owned. The City of Toronto had the highest concentration of non-resident owned condo-apartments in the CMA, which were on average valued at $439,000, or 7.6% more expensive than resident-owned.
Same is true for Non-Resident Owned Single-Family Homes–More Expensive Than Resident-Owned
For the Vancouver CMA, the average value of a single-detached house owned by non-residents was approximately $2.3 million compared with $1.6 million for resident held. These differences were most pronounced in the Greater Vancouver A subdivision, the City of Vancouver and West Vancouver. In Greater Vancouver A, single-detached houses owned by non-residents had an average value of nearly $8 million, while those owned by residents had an average value of $5.3 million. The average size of a single-detached house held by non-residents in this district was close to 4,800 square feet, 32.2% larger than the average size of single-detached dwellings owned by residents.
In the Toronto CMA, single-detached houses owned by non-residents were on average 12.3% or $103,500 more expensive than homes owned by residents. Differences in average values for single-detached dwellings were most marked in the municipalities of Markham, Richmond Hill and Toronto. In Markham, the average value of single-detached houses owned by non-residents was close to $1.1 million compared with $997,500 for resident owners. In Richmond Hill, non-resident held single-detached homes were, on average, valued at $1.2 million compared with $1.1 million for resident owned houses. In the City of Toronto, a non-resident owned single-detached house was, on average, valued at just over $1 million compared with $965,800 for a resident owned home. These differences, once again, are much smaller in the GTA than in the GVA.

Bottom Line: Non-residents represent a significantly more important factor in the Vancouver region than in the Toronto CMA, as expected. Moreover, non-residents purchase markedly more expensive properties compared to residents in Vancouver than in Toronto.
Wealthy Chinese nationals are a more significant factor in Vancouver than in Toronto, which has been the case for many years–not surprising given the geography. Moreover, many Chinese nationals began buying properties in the Vancouver CMA well in advance of the July 1997 handover of Hong Kong from the United Kingdom to China. Chinese have continued to find the Vancouver region an attractive haven for capital despite the imposition of capital controls in China.
Many are non-residents and have not rented their properties. In consequence, there are relatively more vacant properties in Vancouver than in Toronto. The Vancouver city council approved a tax on empty homes, the first of its kind in Canada, in early 2017, with the first payments due in 2018. Self-reporting owners will be assessed a one percent tax on homes that are not principal residences or aren’t rented for at least six months of the year. Though a similar tax has been discussed by the Toronto city council, to date, it has not had legs.

Dr. Sherry Cooper
Chief Economist, Dominion Lending Centres
drcooper@dominionlending.ca
17 Dec

Interest Rate

General

Posted by: Bill Yeung

BoC not in a rush to slow down economy –
DLC’s Cooper
SHARE    
by Ephraim Vecina
08 Dec 2017
The Bank of Canada’s latest decision to hold overnight
interest rates at 1.0% should come as no surprise, amid an
ongoing slack in employment numbers and short-live rises in
ination.
This is reective
of the Bank’s seeming absence of haste in
slowing down the economy, according to Dominion Lending
Centres chief economist Dr. Sherry Cooper.
Read more: Higher rates might make 5-year mortgages
popular once more
12/8/2017 BoC not in a rush to slow down economy – DLC’s Cooper
http://www.mortgagebrokernews.ca/news/boc-not-in-a-rush-to-slow-down-economy–dlcs-cooper-235143.aspx 2/3
More stories about
Dominion Lending
Centres
Majority of
households still
manage nances
responsibly – DLC
Mortgage industry
gearing up for awards
season
DLC’s Cooper on
October’s wage
growth
Leave a comment SHARE    
“Third-quarter GDP growth … was in line with the Bank’s
expectations at 1.7%. Canadian growth was expected to
slow in Q3 while remaining above potential in the second
half of this year,” Cooper wrote in her latest analysis.
“Consumer spending has remained very strong, and
business investment and public infrastructure spending are
contributing to growth. The Q3 sharp decline in exports is
expected to be temporary.”
Cooper noted that the decision stemmed from a pronounced
caution on the BoC’s part, amid considerable uncertainty in
geopolitics and trade policies. This is despite the Bank citing
buoyant global growth, higher oil prices, and eased nancial
conditions as net positives that have characterized the
economy recently.
Related stories:
Industry professionals wade in on Bank of Canada
announcement
Mortgage borrowers at risk of “payment shock” after BOC’s

17 Dec

2018 Changes

General

Posted by: Bill Yeung

NEW MORTGAGE RULES COMING JAN 1 BOOST NOVEMBER HOME SALES

24c81aa7-eec3-4cbc-b5a2-7f5042efabdfSo here we are in the lead-up to the January 1 implementation of the new OSFI B-20 regulations requiring that uninsured borrowers be stress-tested at a mortgage rate 200 basis points above the contract rate at federally regulated financial institutions. It is no surprise that home sales rose in advance of the new ruling. Even so, activity remains below peak levels earlier this year and prices continue to fall in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) for the seventh consecutive month.

In a speech this week, Governor Poloz of the Bank of Canada confirmed his continued concern about household indebtedness. Indeed, data released this week by Statistics Canada showed that households continued to pile on debt in the third quarter. The household-debt-to-disposable-income ratio rose by a percentage point to 171.1% last quarter. Relative to assets and net worth, debt also edged higher, but those ratios are much closer to longer run levels, painting a far less dire picture of household finances. And even with households taking on more debt, the share of income needed to service that debt was little changed in Q3, as it has been over the last decade. That will change as the Bank of Canada continues to raise interest rates gradually. However, the prevalence of fixed rate mortgage debt means households won’t feel the increase all at once. Instead, the debt service ratio is likely to rise only gradually. The rising cost of borrowing and more stable home prices should slow credit growth in the year ahead.

But with so much attention paid to the imprudent borrower, I think it is important to reiterate that the vast majority of Canadians responsibly manage their finances. For example, roughly 40% of homeowners are mortgage-free, and one-third of all households are debt-free. Another 25% of households have less than $25,000 in debt, so 58% of Canadian households are nearly debt free. Hence, mortgage delinquency rates are meagre.

The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) reported yesterday that home sales jumped 3.9% from October to November–the second most significant increase in two years. Home sales have now risen for the fourth consecutive month, led by a 16% jump in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA), which accounted for two-thirds of the national rise. Even so, sales activity in the GTA was significantly below year-ago levels. Victoria, Ottawa and Regina also recorded strong gains, while Calgary, Edmonton and Montreal posted modest increases.

Not all markets participated in the rally, though. Vancouver was among the few holdouts. Resales fell for a second-straight month by 3.7% in the Vancouver area where affordability strains represent a major issue for buyers.

New Listings Shot Up

Many sellers decided to list their properties ahead of the mortgage rule changes. New listings rose by 3.5% in Canada between October and November. Most of this increase took place in the Toronto area where new listings jumped by a whopping 22.9%. A report released earlier this month by the Toronto Real Estate Board showed that active listings in Toronto rose modestly above their 10-year average in recent months after plunging to historic lows at the start of this year. Pressure has come off Toronto-area buyers as they are now presented with more options. This could soon be the case in Vancouver too. New listings rose sharply in November and, with resales declining in the past couple of months, the sales-to-new listings ratio is finally moving toward more balanced conditions (see charts below).

The number of months of inventory is another important measure of the balance between housing supply and demand. It represents how long it would take to liquidate current inventories at the current rate of sales activity. There were 4.8 months of inventory on a national basis at the end of November 2017 – down slightly from 4.9 months in October and around 5 months recorded over the summer months, and within close reach of the long-term average of 5.2 months. At 2.4 months, the number of months of inventory in the Greater Golden Horseshoe region is up sharply from the all-time low of 0.8 months reached in February and March.

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Price Pressures Eased

The Aggregate Composite MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) rose by 9.3% y-o-y in November 2017 marking a further deceleration in y-o-y gains that began in the spring and the smallest increase since February 2016. The slowdown in price gains mainly reflects softening price trends in the Greater Golden Horseshoe housing markets tracked by the index, particularly for single-family homes.

Toronto single-family house prices were down 11.6% over the past six months ending November 30 (see chart below). GTA condo prices have fared better, up 0.3% since late May, but the rise is minuscule in comparison to the booming price gains evidenced before the Ontario government’s ‘Fair Housing Plan’ that introduced, among other things, a 15% tax on non-resident foreign purchases of homes.

 

On a year-over-year basis, benchmark home prices were up in 11 of the 13 markets tracked by the MLS HPI. After having dipped in the second half of last year, benchmark home prices in the Lower Mainland of British Columbia have recovered and now stand at new highs (Greater Vancouver: +14% y-o-y; Fraser Valley: +18.5% y-o-y). Benchmark home prices rose by about 14% on a y-o-y basis in Victoria and by 18.5% elsewhere on Vancouver Island in November, on par with y-o-y gains in October.

Price gains have slowed considerably on a y-o-y basis in Greater Toronto, Oakville-Milton and Guelph but remain above year-ago levels (Greater Toronto: +8.4% y-o-y; Oakville-Milton: +3.5% y-o-y; Guelph: +13.4% y-o-y).

Calgary benchmark home prices remained just inside positive territory on a y-o-y basis (+0.3%), while prices in Regina and Saskatoon were down from last November (-3.5% y-o-y and -4.1% y-o-y, respectively).

Benchmark home prices rose 6.7% y-o-y in Ottawa, led by a 7.6% increase in two-storey single-family home prices, by 5.6% in Greater Montreal, driven by an 8.3% increase in prices for townhouse/row units, and by 4.6% in Greater Moncton, led by a 7.8% increase in one-storey single-family home prices. (see table below)

The MLS® Home Price Index provides the best way of gauging price trends because average price trends are prone to be strongly distorted by changes in the mix of sales activity from one month to the next.

Dr. Sherry Cooper

DR. SHERRY COOPER

Chief Economist, Dominion Lending Centres
Sherry is an award-winning authority on finance and economics with over 30 years of bringing economic insights and clarity to Canadians.