15 Oct

Home Sales Up

General

Posted by: Bill Yeung

Canadian Home Sales and Prices Set Another Record High in September
Today’s release of September housing data by the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) shows national home sales rose 0.9% on a month-over-month (m-o-m) (see chart below). This continues the rebound in housing that began five months ago amid record-tight market conditions.

“Along with historic supply shortages in a number of regions, fierce competition among buyers has been putting upward pressure on home prices. Much of that was pent-up demand from the spring that came forward as our economies opened back up over the summer,” said Costa Poulopoulos, Chair of CREA.

According to Shaun Cathcart, CREA’s Senior Economist, “Reasons have been cited for this – pent-up demand from the lockdowns, Government support to date, ultra-low interest rates, and the composition of job losses to name a few. I would also remind everyone that sales were almost setting records and markets were almost this tight back in February so we were already close to where things are now, as far away from Goldilocks territory as we had ever been before. But I think another wildcard factor to consider, which has no historical precedent, is the value of one’s home during this time. Home has been our workplace, our kids’ schools, the gym, the park and more. Personal space is more important than ever.”

The modest uptick in home sales nationally reflected diverse results regionally with about 60% of local markets seeing gains. Increases in Ottawa, Greater Vancouver, Vancouver Island, Calgary and Hamilton-Burlington sales were mostly offset by declines in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) and Montreal; although, activity in the two largest Canadian markets is still historically very strong.
Actual (not seasonally adjusted) sales activity posted a 45.6% y-o-y gain in September. It was a new record for the month of September by a margin of  20,000 transactions, the equivalent of a normal month of September with an entire month of December tacked on. Sales activity was up in almost all Canadian housing markets on a year-over-year basis.
New Listings
The number of newly listed homes declined by 10.2% in September, reversing the surge to record levels seen August. New supply was down in two-thirds of local markets, led by declines in and around Vancouver and the GTA.

With sales edging up in September and new supply dropping back, the national sales-to-new listings ratio tightened to 77.2% – the highest in almost 20 years and the third-highest monthly level on record for the measure.

Based on a comparison of sales-to-new listings ratio with long-term averages, about a third of all local markets were in balanced market territory, measured as being within one standard deviation of their long-term average. The other two-thirds of markets were above long-term norms, in many cases well above.

There were just 2.6 months of inventory on a national basis at the end of September 2020 – the lowest reading on record for this measure. At the local market level, a number of Ontario markets are now into weeks of inventory rather than months. Much of the province of Ontario is close to or under one month of inventory.

Home Prices

The Aggregate Composite MLS® Home Price Index (MLS® HPI) rose by 1.3% m-o-m in September 2020. Of the 39 markets now tracked by the index, all but two were up between August and September.

As buyers are moving further away from city centres, CREA added a large number of Ontario markets to the MLS® HPI this month. The list includes Bancroft and Area, Brantford Region, Cambridge, Grey Bruce Owen Sound, Huron Perth, Kawartha Lakes, Kitchener-Waterloo, the Lakelands (Muskoka-Haliburton-Orillia-Parry Sound), London & St. Thomas, Mississauga, North Bay, Northumberland Hills, Peterborough and the Kawarthas, Quinte & District, Simcoe & District, Southern Georgian Bay, Tillsonburg District and Woodstock-Ingersoll.

The non-seasonally adjusted Aggregate Composite MLS® HPI was up 10.3% on a y-o-y basis in September – the biggest gain since August 2017. The largest y-o-y gains in the 22-23% range were recorded in Bancroft and Area, Quinte & District, Ottawa and Woodstock-Ingersoll.

This was followed by y-o-y price gains in the range of 15-20% in Barrie, Hamilton, Niagara, Guelph, Brantford, Cambridge, Grey Bruce-Owen Sound, Huron Perth, the Lakelands, London & St. Thomas, North Bay, Simcoe & District, Southern Georgian Bay, Tillsonburg District and Montreal.

Prices were up in the 10-15% range compared to last September in the GTA, Oakville-Milton, Kawartha Lakes, Kitchener-Waterloo, Mississauga, Northumberland Hills, Peterborough and the Kawarthas, and Greater Moncton.

Meanwhile, y-o-y price gains were around 5% in Greater Vancouver, the Fraser Valley, the Okanagan Valley, Regina, Saskatoon and Quebec City. Gains were about half that in Victoria and elsewhere on Vancouver Island, as well and in St. John’s, and prices were more or less flat y-o-y in Calgary and Edmonton.

The actual (not seasonally adjusted) national average home price set another record in September 2020, topping the $600,000 mark for the first time ever at more than $604,000. This was up 17.5% from the same month last year.
Bottom Line

Housing strength is largely attributable to record-low mortgage rates and pent-up demand by households that have maintained their level of income during the pandemic. The hardest-hit households are low-wage earners in the accommodation, food services, and travel sectors. These are the folks that can least afford it and typically are not homeowners.

The good news is that the housing market is contributing to the recovery in economic activity.  
French translation of this email will be available by 5pm ET October 19.

La traduction de ce courriel sera disponible d’ici 17 heures, le 19 Octobre.
Dr. Sherry Cooper
18 Mar

Major Banks Follow BOC in Prime rate reduction

General

Posted by: Bill Yeung

Canada’s largest banks slash prime lending rates

Canada’s largest banks slash prime lending ratesFollowing the Bank of Canada’s surprise announcement last week that it is lowering interest rates by 50 basis points to 0.75%, the country’s largest banks cut their prime lending rates to 2.95% from 3.45%.

RBC Royal Bank, BMO Bank of Montreal, Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD Bank), Scotiabank, and CIBC slashed their prime rates – which underpins variable-rate mortgages and lines of credit – effective Tuesday, March 17. Meanwhile, National Bank of Canada will reduce its prime rate effective Wednesday, March 18.

Read more: Royal LePage CEO: BoC rate cut may act as a “relief valve” for overheated market

The Bank of Canada said that it cut interest rates, the second in two weeks, as a proactive measure “taken in light of the negative shocks to Canada’s economy arising from the COVID-19 pandemic and the recent sharp drop in oil prices.” The move was welcomed by several in the mortgage industry as a strong response to the uncertainty caused by these economic challenges.

“The Bank [of Canada] is acting forcefully to reduce the impact of the coronavirus on the economy,” said James Laird, co-founder of Ratehub.ca and president of CanWise Financial. “It is in these uncertain times that Federal institutions acting quickly and intelligently can reduce the negative impact of unforeseen events.”

However, some experts have warned that the same uncertainty will cause banks to hold back on passing the 50-basis-point rate cut to consumers.

In an email to BNN Bloomberg, Rob McLister, founder of mortgage comparison website RateSpy.com, said a slew of macroeconomic headwinds facing the big banks make him skeptical the lenders will pass along the 50-basis-point prime rate cut to consumers.

“What banks giveth with one hand they will taketh with the other by way of variable-rate discount reductions,” Rob McLister, founder of RateSpy.com, told Bloomberg News. “The weather forecast for banks is hurricane, tornado, and tsunami all in the same month. They’re getting sucker-punched by surging credit spreads, shrinking interest margins, rising loan loss reserves, and increasing default risk (even though mortgage arrears are little changed yet.)”

Related stories:

16 Mar

Yet another rate drop!!

General

Posted by: Bill Yeung

Bank of Canada cuts overnight rate again

Beginning today, the Bank of Canada is lowering its target for the overnight rate by 50 basis points to 0.75%. The Bank Rate is correspondingly 1 percent and the deposit rate is 0.50 percent.

The unscheduled rate decision is the second in as many weeks. In a statement, the central bank stated this was “a proactive measure taken in light of the negative shocks to Canada’s economy arising from the COVID-19 pandemic and the recent sharp drop in oil prices.”

Last night, the US Federal Reserve made a surprise announcement in cutting its federal funds rate to a range of 0% to 0.25%. The US central bank also cited the negative economic impact from the coronavirus pandemic for its decision.

Separately, the Bank of Canada has teamed with five central banks to lower the pricing on the standing US dollar liquidity swap arrangements by 25 basis points.

Canada’s central bank announced on Sunday evening that it is working with the US Federal Reserve, the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan, the European Central Bank and the Swiss National Bank to ensure the new rate will be the U.S. dollar overnight index swap (OIS) rate plus 25 basis points. The central banks aim to increase the swap lines’ effectiveness in providing term liquidity by offering U.S. dollars weekly in each jurisdiction with an 84-day maturity, in addition to the one-week maturity operations currently offered.

These changes will take effect with the next scheduled operations during this week. The new pricing and maturity offerings will remain in place as long as appropriate to support the smooth functioning of U.S. dollar funding markets.

“The swap lines are available standing facilities and serve as an important liquidity backstop to ease strains in global funding markets, thereby helping to mitigate the effects of such strains on the supply of credit to households and businesses, both domestically and abroad,” said the Bank of Canada in a statement.

13 Mar

B.C. Home Sales Up

General

Posted by: Bill Yeung

BC home sale values increase by over 40% in FebruaryThe total value of residential sales in British Columbia increased by over 40% in February compared to the same month in 2019, according to figures from the British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA).

BCREA reported that a total of 5,741 residential unit sales were recorded in February 2020, an increase of 26.3% from February 2019. The average residential price was $758,863, a 12% increase from $677,681 recorded the previous year. And significantly, the total sales volume in February was $4.4 billion – a 41.4% increase over 2019.

Read more: B-20 cost province $500 million in lost economic activity: BCREA

“Housing markets in BC continued to trend near long-term average levels in February,” said Brendon Ogmundson, chief economist at BCREA. “Recent declines in mortgage rates and favourable changes to mortgage qualifying rules may provide a boost to home sales heading into spring, although there is significant economic uncertainty lingering over the outlook.”

Total residential active listings fell 8.4% to 28,303 units compared to the same month last year. The ratio of sales to active residential listings increased 20.3% from 14.7% last February.

Perhaps unsurprisingly, the Greater Vancouver area experienced the biggest year-on-year sales increase with 2,185 residential unit sales – a 44.5% increase from last year. Additionally, the average residential price in Greater Vancouver was $1,006,708 – a 6.9% increase from the same period in 2019.

9 Mar

OIL PRICES DOWN, BOND YIELD LOW…

General

Posted by: Bill Yeung

Another brutal Monday morning as oil lost a fifth of its value overnight as a clash between Saudi Arabia and Russia threatened to flood a world already hobbled by the Coronavirus outbreak with a glut of crude. Canada’s prairie provinces are sideswiped.
View this email in your browser
https://dominionlending.ca/news/global-markets-in-turmoil-as-oil-plunges-propelling-yields-to-record-lows/

Global Markets in Turmoil, Oil Prices Plunge Along With Yields

Markets shuddered in the face of a price war for oil and the economic fallout from the growing outbreak of coronavirus. Frightened investors poured into haven assets sending yields to unprecedented lows. Oil prices tumbled 30% after Saudi Arabia said it would cut most of its oil prices and boost output when Russia refused to join OPEC in propping up prices (see chart below). Foreign exchange markets convulsed, as the steep drops in oil and share prices overnight sparked a flight from commodity-linked currencies into the perceived safety of the Japanese yen and the US dollar. The Canadian dollar fell to 0.7362 as of this writing. The Government of Canada 5-year bond yield was as low as 0.284% overnight but has since recovered roughly 0.535%, still well below Friday’s closing level of approximately 0.65% (second chart below).

Stock prices have fallen very sharply in the first hour of North American trading. Panic selling sent the Dow down 2,000 points, and the S&P500 sank 7% after triggering a circuit breaker that halted trade for 15 minutes. The TSX took a dizzying nosedive on the open, down more than 1400 points or nearly 9.0% led down by oil stocks and financials.

The spread of coronavirus outside of China tripled over the past week. The US State Department announced yesterday that older people should avoid travel on cruises, particularly if they have compromised immune systems. All of this amplifies recession fears as the outbreak spreads.

There is concern in the US that the government is not handling the outbreak appropriately. Mixed messaging and an inadequate supply of testing kits came as the number of coronavirus cases in the US topped 500 over the weekend. President Trump retweeted a meme of himself fiddling on Sunday, drawing a comparison to the Roman emperor Nero who fiddled as Rome burned around him. This is a time when leadership is of paramount importance.

Borrowing costs are falling sharply–a silver lining for first-time homebuyers. The best advice for investors is not to panic. This, too, shall pass, although no one knows when.
French translation of this email will be available by 5pm ET March 11.

La traduction de ce courriel sera disponible d’ici 17 heures, le 11 mars.
Dr. Sherry Cooper
Chief Economist, Dominion Lending Centres
d
4 Mar

Holding Breath For another Rate Drop

General

Posted by: Bill Yeung

Experts: Federal Reserve’s surprise rate cut will force Bank of Canada’s hand

Experts: Federal Reserve’s surprise rate cut will force Bank of Canada’s handYesterday’s unexpected announcement by the U.S. Federal Reserve to cut its benchmark interest rate in response to the economic uncertainty tied to the outbreak of the novel coronavirus (formally known as COVID-19) has convinced industry leaders that the Bank of Canada (BoC) will be forced to take a similar action today.

The emergency rate cut by a half percentage point to a target range of 1.00% to 1.25% was justified by the Federal Reserve as a necessary response to the economic risks posed by the coronavirus. The BoC is expected to announce its rate cut today from the 1.75% that has been in place since June 2015. The 1.75% benchmark interest rate is the highest among the G7 nations.

Following the news from the Federal Reserve, industry experts fanned out across the media to insist the only question related to a BoC rate cut would be the depth of the action.

“Twenty-five basis points may prompt loonie strength and derail the stimulus of the cut itself, while 50 basis points could stoke a housing bubble,” said Simon Harvey, FX market analyst for Monex Europe and Monex Canada, in a Reuters interview. “Markets are running with the fact that the latter is a less concerning risk at the moment and are aggressively pricing a similar 50 bps from the BoC,”

Although Canada has not experienced the abrupt increases in coronavirus cases that have been recorded in other countries, the economy is expected to feel an impact in certain sectors including travel and tourism, as well through disruptions in its global supply chain.

“That’s enough for them to cut on its own – the terms of trade shock, the travel and tourism, the supply chain disruptions from not being able to source inputs from China,” said Royce Mendes, an economist at Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce in Toronto, in a Bloomberg interview.

Gareth Watson, wealth adviser at Richardson GMP, predicted the BoC will cut the benchmark interest rate a quarter percentage point.

“It will be a shocker to me if Canada doesn’t follow suit, considering Australia did this morning and there are expectations The Bank of England will follow suit this month,” said Watson in a CBC News interview.

Avery Shenfeld, chief economist at CIBC Capital Markets, told the Ottawa Citizen that a rate cut was long overdue.

“The Canadian economy was barely growing in the last quarter of 2019, so we’re putting a shock into the global economy at a time when Canada desperately was looking for momentum,” said Shenfeld.

And Derek Holt, economist at Bank of Nova Scotia, bluntly stated to the Wall Street Journal, “The Bank of Canada needs to cut. Now. Enough dithering.”

Separately, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau raised the possibility that the government would be willing to provide help to firms experiencing financial damage as a result of the coronavirus outbreak.

“There will be impacts on Canadian businesses, on entrepreneurs, and we will always look for ways to minimize that impact and perhaps give help where help is needed,” said Trudeau, although he did not offer specific details on the type of help or the possible qualifications for receiving assistance.

Finance Minister Bill Morneau took to Twitter to stress that Canadian actions related to the economic impacts of the coronavirus outbreak would be conducted in coordination with the other G7 countries, rather than in a domino effect of nation following nation in hurriedly adapting game plans.

“This morning I spoke with my G7 counterparts regarding the impacts on global economic activity from the COVID-19 outbreak,” Morneau wrote on Twitter. “We have reaffirmed our readiness to take action as necessary to aid in the response and support the economy. I’m continuing to monitor the issue closely.”

3 Mar

EXTRA! EXTRA!! EXTRA!!! Read All About It!!. Fed Cutting Rate

General

Posted by: Bill Yeung

 The Fed Brings Out The Big Guns

In a remarkable show of force, the US Federal Reserve jumped the gun on its regularly scheduled meeting on March 18 and cut the target overnight fed funds rate by a full 50 basis points (bps) to 1%-to-1.25%. This now stands well below the Bank of Canada’s target rate of 1.75% and may well force the Bank’s hand to cut rates when it meets tomorrow, possibly even by 50 bps.

The Fed has not cut rates outside of its normal cycle of meetings since October 8, 2008, as the collapse of Lehman Brothers roiled financial markets. Such moves are rare, but not unprecedented.

The BoC is conflicted, in that such a dramatic rate cut would fuel household borrowing and the housing market, which the Bank considers to be robust enough.

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC, the Fed’s policymaking group) released the following statement: “The fundamentals of the U.S. economy remain strong. However, the coronavirus poses evolving risks to economic activity. In light of these risks and in support of achieving its maximum employment and price stability goals, the Federal Open Market Committee decided today to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/2 percentage point, to 1 to 1‑1/4 percent. The Committee is closely monitoring developments and their implications for the economic outlook and will use its tools and act as appropriate to support the economy.”

In an 11 AM (ET) news conference, Chairman Powell said the broader spread of the virus poses an evolving risk to the economy that required immediate action. The FOMC judged the risk to the economy had worsened. The Fed acted unilaterally, in contrast to the coordinated central bank move taken during the financial crisis in 2008.

However, the Fed is in active discussion with other central banks around the world, and the European Central Bank indicated earlier today that they would take any necessary actions. Central banks in the euro-area and Japan have less scope to follow with rates already in negative territory.

Governor Carney said earlier today that the Bank of England would take steps needed to battle the virus shock. Carney hinted at the complexity of dealing with the trauma for central banks in assessing whether the impact falls on demand — which they have more capacity to address — or supply — which is harder to for central banks to treat.

G-7 finance chiefs and central bankers are scheduled to have a rare conference call today.

With election tensions running strong in the US–after all, today is Super Tuesday–it’s easy to imagine that this move by the Fed is as much political as economic. It comes amid public pressure for a rate cut by President Trump. Moreover, following today’s dramatic move, the president called for more, demanding in a tweet that the Fed “must further ease and, most importantly, come into line with other countries/competitors. We are not playing on a level field. Not fair to USA.”

Politicizing the Fed is dangerous and reduces the global credibility of the US central bank.

Stock markets around the world reversed some of today’s earlier losses on the news. The US stock markets opened today with a significant selloff following a rally yesterday. Bond yields continued to decline on the news.

Bottom Line for Canada: The key government of Canada 5-year bond yield has fallen sharply today to 0.925% and falling at the time of this writing. The 5-year yield was 1.04% before the Fed’s announcement. The Bank of Canada will likely cut overnight rates tomorrow for the first time since October 2018–but by how much? I would guess by 25 bps given Poloz’s concern about household debt.
French translation of this email will be available by 5pm ET March 5.

La traduction de ce courriel sera disponible d’ici 17 heures, le 5 mars.
Dr. Sherry Cooper
Chief Economist, Dominion Lending Centres
28 Feb

Is The Housing Market Infected By The Corona Virus?

General

Posted by: Bill Yeung

 Virus Anxiety Hits Canada

As though things weren’t volatile enough, a new wave of virus terror is wreaking havoc on global financial markets. The novel conronavirus, COVID-19, continues to spread causing panic in worldwide stock and bond markets for the seventh day. Share prices have plummetted in Asia, Europe, the U.S. and Canada. The sell-off is fueled mostly by concern that measures to contain the virus will hamper corporate profits and economic growth, and fears that the outbreak could get worse.

Interest rates are falling sharply, hitting record lows reflecting a movement of cash out of stocks and commodities like oil, into the safer havens of government bonds and gold. In Canada, the 5-year bond yield has fallen to 1.16% this morning, down more than 50 basis points (bps) year-to-date and down 65 bps year-over-year (see chart below). Mortgage rates are closely linked to the 5-year government bond yield, so further downward pressure on mortgage rates is likely. Oil prices have fallen sharply, hitting the Prairie provinces hard. Crude oil WTI prices have fallen to just over US$45.00 a barrel compared to $62.50 earlier this year.

The Canadian dollar has also taken a beating, down to 0.7468 cents US, compared to a high of 0.7712 early this year.

The Canadian economy was already battered as today’s release of fourth-quarter GDP data shows. Statistics Canada reported that the economy came to a near halt in Q4 as exports dropped by the most since 2017 and business investment declined. Household spending was a bright spot–a reflection of a strong labour market and rising wages.

Monthly data for December, also released this morning, came in stronger than expected, showing the economy had some momentum going into 2020 before the coronavirus reared its ugly head.

The weak 0.3% growth in Q4 was expected as a series of temporary factors including a week-long rail strike, manufacturing plant disruptions and pipeline shutdowns slowed growth. Even though December posted an uptick, the first quarter will no doubt be hampered by the rail blockade and now virus-related supply and travel disruptions as well as reduced tourism.

Bottom Line: Panic selling in the stock market is never a good idea. The TSX opened down more 550 points this morning following yesterday’s outage. Trading on Thursday was suspended around 2 PM for technical reasons.

None of this is good for psychology or the economy.

The Bank of Canada meets next Wednesday, and clearly, their press release will address these issues. It’s unlikely the Bank will cut rates in response on March 4, but if the economic disruption continues, rate cuts could be coming by mid-year.

The new stress test will be in place on April 6. If rates were at today’s level, the qualifying rate for mortgage borrowers would be more than 40-to-50 basis points lower than today’s level of 5.19%. This will add fuel to an already hot housing market.
French translation of this email will be available by 5pm ET March 3.

Traduction de cet e-mail sera disponible 17 heures Mars 3.
Dr. Sherry Cooper
Chief Economist, Dominion Lending Centres
18 Feb

Stress Test Change in April

General

Posted by: Bill Yeung

Morneau Eases Stress Test On Insured Mortgages
View this email in your browser
Minister Morneau Announces New Benchmark Rate for Qualifying For Insured Mortgages
The new qualifying rate will be the mortgage contract rate or a newly created benchmark very close to it plus 200 basis points, in either case. The News Release from the Department of Finance Canada states, “the Government of Canada has introduced measures to help more Canadians achieve their housing needs while also taking measured actions to contain risks in the housing market. A stable and healthy housing market is part of a strong economy, which is vital to building and supporting a strong middle class.”

These changes will come into effect on April 6, 2020. The new benchmark rate will be the weekly median 5-year fixed insured mortgage rate from mortgage insurance applications, plus 2%.

This follows a recent review by federal financial agencies, which concluded that the minimum qualifying rate should be more dynamic to reflect the evolution of market conditions better. Overall, the review concluded that the mortgage stress test is working to ensure that home buyers are able to afford their homes even if interest rates rise, incomes change, or families are faced with unforeseen expenses.

This adjustment to the stress test will allow it to be more representative of the mortgage rates offered by lenders and more responsive to market conditions.

The Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions (OSFI) also announced today that it is considering the same new benchmark rate to determine the minimum qualifying rate for uninsured mortgages.

The existing qualification rule, which was introduced in 2016 for insured mortgages and in 2018 for uninsured mortgages, wasn’t responsive enough to the recent drop in lending interest rates — effectively making the stress test too tight. The earlier rule established the big-six bank posted rate plus 2 percentage points as the qualifying rate. Banks have increasingly held back from adjusting their posted rates when 5-year market yields moved downward. With rates falling sharply in recent weeks, especially since the coronavirus scare, the gap between posted and contract mortgage rates has widened even more than what was already evident in the past two years.

This move, effective April 6, should reduce the qualifying rate by about 30 basis points if contract rates remain at roughly today’s levels. According to a Department of Finance official, “As of February 18, 2020, based on the weekly median 5-year fixed insured mortgage rate from insured mortgage applications received by the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, the new benchmark rate would be roughly 4.89%.”  That’s 30 basis points less than today’s benchmark rate of 5.19%.

The Bank of Canada will calculate this new benchmark weekly, based on actual rates from mortgage insurance applications, as underwritten by Canada’s three default insurers.

OSFI confirmed today that it, too, is considering the new benchmark rate for its minimum stress test rate on uninsured mortgages (mortgages with at least 20% equity).

“The proposed new benchmark for uninsured mortgages is based on rates from mortgage applications submitted by a wide variety of lenders, which makes it more representative of both the broader market and fluctuations in actual contract rates,” OSFI said in its release.

“In addition to introducing a more accurate floor, OSFI’s proposal maintains cohesion between the benchmarks used to qualify both uninsured and insured mortgages.” (Thank goodness, as the last thing the mortgage market needs is more complexity.)

The new rules will certainly add to what was already likely to be a buoyant spring housing market. While it might boost buying power by just 3% (depending on what the new benchmark turns out to be on April 6), the psychological boost will be positive. Homebuyers—particularly first-time buyers—are already worried about affordability, given the double-digit gains of the last 12 months.
French translation of this email will be available by 5pm ET Feb 19.

Traduction de cet e-mail sera disponible 17 heures Feb 19.
Dr. Sherry Cooper
Chief Economist, Dominion Lending Centres
4 Feb

Qualifying Rate Drop

General

Posted by: Bill Yeung

Canadian Qualifying Mortgage Rate Lowered to 4.99%

Market interest rates have fallen sharply since the coronavirus-led investor flight to the safety of government bonds. The 5-year government bond yield–a harbinger of conventional mortgage rates–now stands at 1.34%, down sharply from the 1.60+% range it was trading in before the virus became global news (see chart below).

This morning, one of the Big-Six banks finally reacted. TD cut its posted 5-year fixed rate to 4.99%. TD’s posted rate had previously been at 5.34%, making this a 36 basis point cut. Other banks had lowered their qualifying rate to 5.19% last July, leading the Bank of Canada to cut its 5-year conventional mortgage rate to 5.19%. This is the qualifying rate under the B-20 rule introduced on January 1, 2018.

Even the regulators have been questioning the efficacy and fairness of using the big-bank posted rate as a qualifying rate for mortgage stress testing.

On January 24, the Assistant Superintendent of OSFI’s Regulation Sector, Ben Gully, gave a speech at the C.D. Howe Institute suggesting that the B-20 qualifying mortgage rate historically would be no more than 200 basis points above contract rates. He said that OSFI chose the “best available rate at the time.”

He went on to say that for many years, the difference between the benchmark rate and the average contract rate was 200 bps. However, this gap “has been widening more recently, suggesting that the benchmark is less responsive to market changes than when it was first proposed. We are reviewing this aspect of our qualifying rate, as the posted rate is not playing the role that we intended. As always, we will share our results with our federal partners. This will help to inform the advice OSFI might provide to the Minister, as requested in the mandate letter to him.”

By keeping posted rates too high, the Big-Six banks have inflated the qualifying rate, making it more difficult than necessary to pass the stress test to get a mortgage.

While TD’s rate cut is welcome news, its posted rate is still too high by historical standards. Given today’s average contract rates, the posted rate should be at least 20 bps lower still.

Banks have a strong incentive to inflate their posted mortgage rate. For one thing, they are the basis for the calculation of big-bank mortgage penalties. Also, they are the minimum qualifying rate.

The posted rate does not appropriately reflect the state of the mortgage market as few borrowers would pay this rate. Interestingly, banks often move this rate in lock-step, or close to it, reflecting their dominant oligopolistic position in the marketplace.

If a couple of the other big banks follow TD’s lead, the Bank of Canada benchmark rate will be below 5% for the first time since January 2018 when the new B-20 rules were adopted. Lowering the stress test rate by 20 bps from 5.19% to 4.99% would require roughly 1.8% less income to qualify for a mortgage on the average Canadian home price (assuming a 20% downpayment), increasing buying power by 2%. This doesn’t sound like much, but it can have a meaningful psychological impact on already improving housing markets. The latest CREA data shows that the national average home price surged 9.6% year-over-year in December. A lower stress test rate would make a busy spring housing market even more active.
Dr. Sherry Cooper
Chief Economist, Dominion Lending Centres