28 Feb

Is The Housing Market Infected By The Corona Virus?

General

Posted by: Bill Yeung

 Virus Anxiety Hits Canada

As though things weren’t volatile enough, a new wave of virus terror is wreaking havoc on global financial markets. The novel conronavirus, COVID-19, continues to spread causing panic in worldwide stock and bond markets for the seventh day. Share prices have plummetted in Asia, Europe, the U.S. and Canada. The sell-off is fueled mostly by concern that measures to contain the virus will hamper corporate profits and economic growth, and fears that the outbreak could get worse.

Interest rates are falling sharply, hitting record lows reflecting a movement of cash out of stocks and commodities like oil, into the safer havens of government bonds and gold. In Canada, the 5-year bond yield has fallen to 1.16% this morning, down more than 50 basis points (bps) year-to-date and down 65 bps year-over-year (see chart below). Mortgage rates are closely linked to the 5-year government bond yield, so further downward pressure on mortgage rates is likely. Oil prices have fallen sharply, hitting the Prairie provinces hard. Crude oil WTI prices have fallen to just over US$45.00 a barrel compared to $62.50 earlier this year.

The Canadian dollar has also taken a beating, down to 0.7468 cents US, compared to a high of 0.7712 early this year.

The Canadian economy was already battered as today’s release of fourth-quarter GDP data shows. Statistics Canada reported that the economy came to a near halt in Q4 as exports dropped by the most since 2017 and business investment declined. Household spending was a bright spot–a reflection of a strong labour market and rising wages.

Monthly data for December, also released this morning, came in stronger than expected, showing the economy had some momentum going into 2020 before the coronavirus reared its ugly head.

The weak 0.3% growth in Q4 was expected as a series of temporary factors including a week-long rail strike, manufacturing plant disruptions and pipeline shutdowns slowed growth. Even though December posted an uptick, the first quarter will no doubt be hampered by the rail blockade and now virus-related supply and travel disruptions as well as reduced tourism.

Bottom Line: Panic selling in the stock market is never a good idea. The TSX opened down more 550 points this morning following yesterday’s outage. Trading on Thursday was suspended around 2 PM for technical reasons.

None of this is good for psychology or the economy.

The Bank of Canada meets next Wednesday, and clearly, their press release will address these issues. It’s unlikely the Bank will cut rates in response on March 4, but if the economic disruption continues, rate cuts could be coming by mid-year.

The new stress test will be in place on April 6. If rates were at today’s level, the qualifying rate for mortgage borrowers would be more than 40-to-50 basis points lower than today’s level of 5.19%. This will add fuel to an already hot housing market.
French translation of this email will be available by 5pm ET March 3.

Traduction de cet e-mail sera disponible 17 heures Mars 3.
Dr. Sherry Cooper
Chief Economist, Dominion Lending Centres
18 Feb

Stress Test Change in April

General

Posted by: Bill Yeung

Morneau Eases Stress Test On Insured Mortgages
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Minister Morneau Announces New Benchmark Rate for Qualifying For Insured Mortgages
The new qualifying rate will be the mortgage contract rate or a newly created benchmark very close to it plus 200 basis points, in either case. The News Release from the Department of Finance Canada states, “the Government of Canada has introduced measures to help more Canadians achieve their housing needs while also taking measured actions to contain risks in the housing market. A stable and healthy housing market is part of a strong economy, which is vital to building and supporting a strong middle class.”

These changes will come into effect on April 6, 2020. The new benchmark rate will be the weekly median 5-year fixed insured mortgage rate from mortgage insurance applications, plus 2%.

This follows a recent review by federal financial agencies, which concluded that the minimum qualifying rate should be more dynamic to reflect the evolution of market conditions better. Overall, the review concluded that the mortgage stress test is working to ensure that home buyers are able to afford their homes even if interest rates rise, incomes change, or families are faced with unforeseen expenses.

This adjustment to the stress test will allow it to be more representative of the mortgage rates offered by lenders and more responsive to market conditions.

The Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions (OSFI) also announced today that it is considering the same new benchmark rate to determine the minimum qualifying rate for uninsured mortgages.

The existing qualification rule, which was introduced in 2016 for insured mortgages and in 2018 for uninsured mortgages, wasn’t responsive enough to the recent drop in lending interest rates — effectively making the stress test too tight. The earlier rule established the big-six bank posted rate plus 2 percentage points as the qualifying rate. Banks have increasingly held back from adjusting their posted rates when 5-year market yields moved downward. With rates falling sharply in recent weeks, especially since the coronavirus scare, the gap between posted and contract mortgage rates has widened even more than what was already evident in the past two years.

This move, effective April 6, should reduce the qualifying rate by about 30 basis points if contract rates remain at roughly today’s levels. According to a Department of Finance official, “As of February 18, 2020, based on the weekly median 5-year fixed insured mortgage rate from insured mortgage applications received by the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, the new benchmark rate would be roughly 4.89%.”  That’s 30 basis points less than today’s benchmark rate of 5.19%.

The Bank of Canada will calculate this new benchmark weekly, based on actual rates from mortgage insurance applications, as underwritten by Canada’s three default insurers.

OSFI confirmed today that it, too, is considering the new benchmark rate for its minimum stress test rate on uninsured mortgages (mortgages with at least 20% equity).

“The proposed new benchmark for uninsured mortgages is based on rates from mortgage applications submitted by a wide variety of lenders, which makes it more representative of both the broader market and fluctuations in actual contract rates,” OSFI said in its release.

“In addition to introducing a more accurate floor, OSFI’s proposal maintains cohesion between the benchmarks used to qualify both uninsured and insured mortgages.” (Thank goodness, as the last thing the mortgage market needs is more complexity.)

The new rules will certainly add to what was already likely to be a buoyant spring housing market. While it might boost buying power by just 3% (depending on what the new benchmark turns out to be on April 6), the psychological boost will be positive. Homebuyers—particularly first-time buyers—are already worried about affordability, given the double-digit gains of the last 12 months.
French translation of this email will be available by 5pm ET Feb 19.

Traduction de cet e-mail sera disponible 17 heures Feb 19.
Dr. Sherry Cooper
Chief Economist, Dominion Lending Centres
4 Feb

Qualifying Rate Drop

General

Posted by: Bill Yeung

Canadian Qualifying Mortgage Rate Lowered to 4.99%

Market interest rates have fallen sharply since the coronavirus-led investor flight to the safety of government bonds. The 5-year government bond yield–a harbinger of conventional mortgage rates–now stands at 1.34%, down sharply from the 1.60+% range it was trading in before the virus became global news (see chart below).

This morning, one of the Big-Six banks finally reacted. TD cut its posted 5-year fixed rate to 4.99%. TD’s posted rate had previously been at 5.34%, making this a 36 basis point cut. Other banks had lowered their qualifying rate to 5.19% last July, leading the Bank of Canada to cut its 5-year conventional mortgage rate to 5.19%. This is the qualifying rate under the B-20 rule introduced on January 1, 2018.

Even the regulators have been questioning the efficacy and fairness of using the big-bank posted rate as a qualifying rate for mortgage stress testing.

On January 24, the Assistant Superintendent of OSFI’s Regulation Sector, Ben Gully, gave a speech at the C.D. Howe Institute suggesting that the B-20 qualifying mortgage rate historically would be no more than 200 basis points above contract rates. He said that OSFI chose the “best available rate at the time.”

He went on to say that for many years, the difference between the benchmark rate and the average contract rate was 200 bps. However, this gap “has been widening more recently, suggesting that the benchmark is less responsive to market changes than when it was first proposed. We are reviewing this aspect of our qualifying rate, as the posted rate is not playing the role that we intended. As always, we will share our results with our federal partners. This will help to inform the advice OSFI might provide to the Minister, as requested in the mandate letter to him.”

By keeping posted rates too high, the Big-Six banks have inflated the qualifying rate, making it more difficult than necessary to pass the stress test to get a mortgage.

While TD’s rate cut is welcome news, its posted rate is still too high by historical standards. Given today’s average contract rates, the posted rate should be at least 20 bps lower still.

Banks have a strong incentive to inflate their posted mortgage rate. For one thing, they are the basis for the calculation of big-bank mortgage penalties. Also, they are the minimum qualifying rate.

The posted rate does not appropriately reflect the state of the mortgage market as few borrowers would pay this rate. Interestingly, banks often move this rate in lock-step, or close to it, reflecting their dominant oligopolistic position in the marketplace.

If a couple of the other big banks follow TD’s lead, the Bank of Canada benchmark rate will be below 5% for the first time since January 2018 when the new B-20 rules were adopted. Lowering the stress test rate by 20 bps from 5.19% to 4.99% would require roughly 1.8% less income to qualify for a mortgage on the average Canadian home price (assuming a 20% downpayment), increasing buying power by 2%. This doesn’t sound like much, but it can have a meaningful psychological impact on already improving housing markets. The latest CREA data shows that the national average home price surged 9.6% year-over-year in December. A lower stress test rate would make a busy spring housing market even more active.
Dr. Sherry Cooper
Chief Economist, Dominion Lending Centres