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Each Office Independently Owned & Operated
Posted by: Bill Yeung
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Posted by: Bill Yeung
Last week, for the first time in over a decade, the Canadian Government Bond Yield Curve inverted. The inversion of the yield curve is seen as an economic shift to a more negative long-term outlook for Canadian investors and consumers. Those planning to borrow for the purchase of a new home may wish to take special note as this could also impact future retail interest rates as we explain in this installment of the Home Trust Mortgages Blog.
A bond yield curve plots the rate of return for bonds with similar credit ratings, but with different maturity dates. Placing the time to maturity along the x-axis, and the rate of return on the y-axis, creates a visualization of the expected yield for each bond series, plotted against the time to maturity.
Because one of the maxims of investing is that investors should receive a higher return in exchange for the added risk of holding an investment over a longer period of time, a line that curves upwards over time reflects this principle. As such, it is known as a normal yield curve. However, when shorter-term bonds are priced higher than long bonds as was the case recently for Canadian government bonds, the yield curves downwards along the y-axis forming an inverted yield curve.
The recent inversion of the Canadian yield curve marks the first time in over a decade that this event has occurred. The last time it happened was in 2007 and was followed shortly afterwards by the so-called “Great Recession” of 2008. It is also worth noting that Canada is the only developed country to have recently seen its yield curve invert.
What Does This Mean for Canadian Homebuyers?
The shape of the yield curve has two possible implications. For starters, an inverted yield curve suggests a general lack of optimism in the economy over the longer term and this often factors into the mindset of investors. In some cases, it can even help fuel a general slowdown in economic activity including a pull back in stock prices.
Secondly, and of greater importance to home buyers, the yield curve benchmarks other interest rates including bank lending rates and mortgage rates. Retail mortgage rates are based partly on long-term bond rates so if the outlook for these bonds is weaker, this could be seen as having a dampening effect on mortgage interest rates.
Of course, the yield curve is just one of many indicators that economists typically refer to when projecting where the economy is headed. Like any predictive tool there is no guarantee that things will unfold as suggested, but investors should at least be aware of the possible implications suggested by the most recent yield curve formation.
This article has been prepared by Home Trust and may be freely shared.
Posted by: Bill Yeung
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Posted by: Bill Yeung
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Posted by: Bill Yeung
David Hold | May 01, 2018
• Companies will spend $1 trillion on cybersecurity in the next five years.
• Whaling or business email compromises cost businesses $5 billion.
• Ransomware, including ransoms and downtime, tops $5 billion in impact.
• IoT security spending is predicted to surpass a half billion dollars this year.
At a recent cybersecurity conference, a top executive from an American firm told a terrifying story. His company had been undergoing a series of high-profile merges and acquisitions. Much of the activity was kept under wraps, to prevent the competition from moving in.
One morning, the company’s controller was in the office working on the month-end close. The CFO was traveling in a different time zone and not easy to reach. An urgent message appeared in the controller’s inbox, stating that a time-sensitive and top secret deal had been approved.
It included details for a large sum of money to be wired immediately. As the controller picked up his phone to call the CFO for approval, his office phone rang.
The caller identified himself as a consultant from a top firm that had been working with the company on different ventures. The person’s name wasn’t familiar, but the consulting firm was.
The caller stated that he had just spoken with the CFO, and she had asked him to call the controller to walk him through the transfer. If the funds weren’t in an account in mere minutes, the deal, the controller’s job, and the company’s very future was in peril.
Luckily, rather than take immediate action, the controller put his caller on hold and ran down to the hall to the CEO. He was in the office and didn’t know anything about the deal. They quickly called the CFO, and it became clear that this was a case of “whaling.”
A disaster was narrowly averted thanks to the quick thinking of an employee. Yet many companies have hit headlines in recent years after employees have fallen for similar scams.
Let’s take a look at the top cybersecurity threats for 2018 – and what companies can do to prepare and protect their assets.
Make sure to check out our previous cybersecurity posts “4 Tips for Defending Against Cyber Threats” and “Our Top 10 Healthcare Cybersecurity Questions.”
So-called whaling, described above, has been identified as a significant threat. The FBI has been tracking this issue since 2013 and has seen a sharp escalation in just the past few years. Whaling occurs when criminals rely on deception to convince an unsuspecting company or employee that a request is legitimate.
They combine a variety of tactics, from technology that lets them spoof emails to gathering data online and via social media to effectively impersonate a decision maker. Social engineering and technology blend to create the ultimate threat.
In a statement, the FBI notes: “BEC is a serious threat on a global scale. And the criminal organizations that perpetrate these frauds are continually honing their techniques to exploit unsuspecting victims.”
The latest estimates reported by IDG suggest that whaling costs organizations more than $5 billion.
The best ways to fight back against whaling are multifold. Employee education is critical. It’s also important to have clear business procedures that don’t allow large financial transactions or data transfers to occur without multiple sign-offs.
There should also be a procedure for reporting and investigating questionable requests when they are made.
Finally, there are email tools that alert users to potentially spoofed messages and even leverage watermarked “stationary” to indicate formal communications.
A ransomware attack usually starts innocently enough. A member of your team receives an email or visits a website. They download a file or click on a link. Suddenly, the entire computer system — or worse, company files or network — locks up.
A message appears. Unless a ransom is paid within a certain period of time, the data will remain locked and unavailable. It some cases, it will even be deleted if the ransom isn’t paid.
Ransomware becomes even more insidious when demands are paid and then further payment is demanded. When does it stop? Ransomware can paralyze an entire system and put your data at serious risk.
In the healthcare industry, ransomeware attacks have seriously impacted patient care. The threat to the bottom line also can’t be overlooked. It’s believed that ransomware cost more than $5 billion in damages in 2017 alone.
Companies are taking bold steps to prevent the inadvertent downloading of ransomware, from implementing employee education programs to using tools to help identify potential threats.
Encrypting files and maintaining cloud-based backups so that any compromised data exists in another setting can help reduce the impact and speed recovery if the unthinkable should occur.
Firewalls, virus protection and file scanning for email is also essential. Companies are also looking at encrypted fax as a better way to share documents, without the risk of spreading embedded ransomware often found in emails.
The Internet of Things (IoT) is predicted to grow to more than 20 billion connected devices by 2020 — and other estimates range even higher. These devices serve a wide variety of functions throughout the business world.
They collect and relay marketing information and customer data. Behind the scenes, they’re used for everything from monitoring the temperature in shipping containers to notifying companies before an equipment failure occurs.
They’re saving organizations a significant amount of money, and as a result, becoming central to the way companies do business.
Because IoT devices are connected, each and every point in that network of billions of little connected dots represents a potential access point for cybercriminals.
A top prediction for 2018 is that companies that rely on IoT devices are going to find these networks under attack.
IoT devices can be used to wreak havoc, overload networks or lock down essential equipment for financial gain.
In one telling example, a major Casino recently had its high-roller database hacked…the point of entry being an IoT temperature sensor the lobby aquarium that was overlooked by everyone, except for the fish, and the cyber-thieves.
In response, companies are spending over $500 million in IoT related cybersecurity activities.
Companies that are investing in the Internet of Things need to ensure that security is a top focus. Steps to take involve carefully vetting vendors for their security standards and ensuring that ongoing steps are being taken to prevent breaches.
Existing IoT networks should also be tested for vulnerabilities and issues, and have necessary upgrades made. Investments go much further when used for prevention than they do for damage control.
Techrepublic notes that a top potential threat is identity verification. Companies often rely on government systems or organizations such as the major credit bureaus to verify identity and gather data on customers, employees and partners.
Yet major breaches have shown that these systems aren’t failproof. Many companies have begun to take steps to find alternate ways to verify identities.
They write, “Forrester predicts that in 2018, we will see an expansion of identity verification services to large banks such as Bank of America, Capital One, Citi, and Wells Fargo. Researchers also said that customers will be able to use bank-issued credentials to log into government services. Blockchain will also likely emerge to help verify identities based on federated, consortium-based transaction data.”
To prepare for this, organizations should consider their reliance on these systems for identity verification. Developing an alternate strategy is key.
A number of companies are emerging — in some cases, based on blockchain technology — to provide identity verification services. Look for partners that have strong security services and can meet your business needs.
The biggest cybersecurity topic this year isn’t exotic; it’s not about foreign entities disrupting elections or dealing with expensive upgrades. It’s the simple fact that many companies have outdated business processes that put them at risk.
One of the biggest trends now taking place is that IT directors and C-level management are taking a closer look at where vulnerabilities can occur in their organizations.
• Ensuring that all data is backed up securely in an encrypted cloud system, with a reputable company;
• Upgrading outdated fax procedures to use encrypted, digital faxing software that’s designed with cybersecurity and regulatory compliance in mind;
• Developing employee education programs, to help introduce and train best practices into the workplace;
• Creating schedules of testing for vulnerabilities on a regular basis and periodically making improvements.
Cybersecurity is finally becoming a top consideration for many businesses, whether they’re maintaining existing IT infrastructure or upgrading to emerging next-gen technology.
They are learning to take proactive steps to understand and anticipate the growing threat environment in order to effectively safeguard private customer information now, and for the foreseeable future.
Posted by: Bill Yeung
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) met this week for the second time under the chairmanship of Jerome Powell. In a unanimous decision, the Committee left the target range for the federal funds rate unchanged at 1-1/2 to 1-3/4 percent. Unlike the Bank of Canada, which has a single objective of targeting inflation at roughly 2 percent, the Fed has a dual statutory mandate to both foster price stability and maximum employment.
U.S. labour conditions remain strong, and the economy continues to grow at a moderate pace. Inflation has now moved to close to 2 percent. The growth of household spending has moderated from their strong fourth-quarter pace, although business fixed investment continued to grow rapidly.
“The Committee expects that economic conditions will evolve in a manner that will warrant further gradual increases in the federal funds rate; the federal funds rate is likely to remain, for some time, below levels that are expected to prevail in the longer run. However, the actual path of the federal funds rate will depend on the economic outlook as informed by incoming data.”
The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury notes slipped slightly to 2.96 percent following the release of the statement, while the S&P 500 Index of U.S. stocks climbed to its highest level of the day and the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell.
U.S. economic growth cooled in the first quarter to an annualized pace of 2.3 percent after averaging higher than 3 percent in the previous three quarters.
Expectations are that the Fed will hike rates once again at the next meeting in June. The Fed signaled in March that they expect to raise rates three or four times this year. They hiked the target federal funds rate three times last year and began to gradually reduce their holdings of securities.
The Bank of Canada will likely raise rates twice this year–probably in the summer and fall. As always, central bank policy will remain data dependent and will adjust with any significant changes in the economic backdrop. It is widely expected that the NAFTA negotiations will be satisfactorily completed in the near future, but that still remains a wildcard.
Increased U.S. protectionist fervour is a significant negative for the global economy. Today, 1,100 U.S. economists signed a letter to President Trump warning him of the dangers of tariffs, reminding him that the 1930 Smoot-Hawley tariffs led to a sustained economic depression.
Posted by: Bill Yeung
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Posted by: Bill Yeung
With most people who are new to real estate and looking for their first home (or possibly second), one of the most significant times is when your offer to buy is accepted by a seller. Unfortunately, that moment is quickly followed by stress, as not many people know what comes next- securing financing. 99% of the time a realtor will ask you if you have been qualified by a bank or a mortgage broker before they write an offer on your behalf. What should be told to you, the client, by the realtor and your mortgage broker is that you need to have a subject to financing condition in your offer.
In order for someone to receive a mortgage from a lender, they need to meet the lender’s (and some times the insurer’s) conditions. Usually, these all revolve around a borrower’s down payment money, their income as well as employment, and the property they are making an offer on. If you make an offer on a home and it is accepted, but for example the lender doesn’t like the property because the strata board doesn’t have enough money in their contingency fund to fix the leaking roof in the next 12 months, they could turn down your application and not lend you money.
If you don’t have the money, you don’t get the home. That is why you have a subject to financing condition, so if for any reason, you can’t meet the lender’s requirements with your income, down payment, or if the property is unacceptable to them or the insurer, you can cancel your offer without any hassle or loss of deposit.
What happens if you make a subject free offer? If you make an offer on a home and it doesn’t have a subject to financing condition in it, that house is now yours once the offer is accepted. Your deposit is no longer yours, and you have to come up with the remaining money. If you cannot and are unable to complete the purchase, the seller may file a lawsuit against you for damages as they have now taken their home off the market potentially losing out on the ability to sell their home to someone else while they waited for you to get financing.
Always, always, always have a condition in your offer that states subject to financing and allow yourself 3 to 5 business days. If you go in without that fail safe and it turns out you really need it, you will potentially be on the hook and if the seller wishes, he or she can sue you for any potential losses. Subject to financing is a must! If you have any questions, contact a Dominion Lending Centres mortgage professional.
Posted by: Bill Yeung
With the Bank of Canada holding rates steady this April, the same is not the case for the bond market, which impacts fixed rates.
In every interest-rate market there are many factors leading to and increase and we are hoping to provide a little bit of clarity on what is happening and what it means to you and your loved ones.
At this time, we see fixed rates increasing as the bond market increases, and our economists anticipate two more Bank of Canada increases of prime rate by the end of 2018.
Why do we note this information and how does it relate to you?
If you are in a variable rate, you will want to:
1. Review your lock-in options. Knowing it’s unlikely the prime rate will reduce and fixed rates are on the rise, there could be a sweet spot to review your options now.
2. If you decide not to lock in, it’s time to review your discount to see if a higher one can be obtained elsewhere.
Locking in won’t be for everyone, especially if you are making higher payments and your mortgage is below $300,000, which most people fit and will continue on that path. Locking in will be up to a 1% higher rate than you are likely presently paying.
If however rates raising another 50 basis points this year and knowing you can likely lock in below 4% now is most attractive to you, this may be your time. The next announcement from the BOC on Prime Rates is May 30th 2018
If you are in a fixed rate:
1. If you obtained your mortgage in the last year, stay put.
2. If you are looking to move up the property ladder or consolidate debt, get your application in to us ASAP so we can hold options for up to 120 days.
3. If you are up for renewal this year or know someone who is, secure your options now with us as we keep a watchful eye on the market.
Please reach out to a Dominion Lending Centres mortgage professional so we can help ensure you or a loved is on the right path in our ever changing market.