Month: May 2018

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31 May

Q1 Canadian GDP

General

Posted by: Bill Yeung

Housing Slowdown and Wilting Consumers Dampened Q1 Canadian GDP Growth

Canadian Jobs Beat Expectation in March, But Wage Growth Is Sluggish
This morning, Stats Canada released the first quarter GDP figures indicating a slowdown in growth in the first quarter to a 1.3% annual rate compared to 1.7% in the final quarter of last year. This was precisely what the Bank of Canada (BoC) forecast for Q1 in the April Monetary Policy Report (MPR).

Yesterday, the BoC told us in its press release that the first quarter’s growth exceeded their expectations. Most economists were expecting first-quarter growth to come in at 1.8%, and so was the BoC. Only goes to show that not even the central bank has a crystal ball.

Growth was dampened by a deceleration in household spending, lower exports of non-energy products and a decline in housing investment. Consumer spending decelerated for the third consecutive quarter–rising by 1.1% in Q1 compared to 2.2% last quarter. The growth in consumption peaked in the first quarter of last year at a robust 4.0% annual rate. Household spending growth has decelerated to its slowest pace in three years. Consumer spending on goods such as automobiles stalled after almost three years of gains.

Growth in business spending on capital projects slowed to 3.5% from 9.7% in the final period of last year, and foreign trade was a drag on growth as exports climbed less than imports.

The most significant decline was in housing. Investment in housing fell 7.2%, the most since 2009, on a whopping 13.5% plunge in ownership transfer costs such as real estate and mortgage broker commissions (see chart). That reflected new mortgage stress test measures that began in January, Statistics Canada said.

On the positive side, the quarter ended with a monthly output gain of 0.3% for March, led once again by a 1.9% rise in mining, quarrying and oil and gas extraction. However, the monthly industry-level data showed the biggest plunge in the output of housing-related brokers since the first quarter of 2008 when the global economy was mired in financial crisis. This, of course, was the intentional result of government and regulatory efforts to slow the housing market.

The pace of economic expansion in Canada has now been below 2% for three consecutive quarters, the worst performance since the oil crash in mid-2015. The economy had recovered with gains exceeding 4% in the first half of last year when Canada boasted the most robust economy in the G-7. In the first quarter of this year, while Canada’s economy grew at a 1.3% pace, the GDP growth in the United States was 2.2%.

BoC Deputy Governor Leduc’s speech later today may give some hints about how today’s releases impact the Bank’s thinking, but in general, a July rate hike is still in play after yesterday’s no-change decision.

Dr. Sherry Cooper
Chief Economist, Dominion Lending Centres
drcooper@dominionlending.ca
30 May

Bond Yield And What You Need To Know

General

Posted by: Bill Yeung

CANADA’S BOND YIELD CURVE: WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW

Last week, for the first time in over a decade, the Canadian Government Bond Yield Curve inverted. The inversion of the yield curve is seen as an economic shift to a more negative long-term outlook for Canadian investors and consumers. Those planning to borrow for the purchase of a new home may wish to take special note as this could also impact future retail interest rates as we explain in this installment of the Home Trust Mortgages Blog.

A bond yield curve plots the rate of return for bonds with similar credit ratings, but with different maturity dates. Placing the time to maturity along the x-axis, and the rate of return on the y-axis, creates a visualization of the expected yield for each bond series, plotted against the time to maturity.

Because one of the maxims of investing is that investors should receive a higher return in exchange for the added risk of holding an investment over a longer period of time, a line that curves upwards over time reflects this principle. As such, it is known as a normal yield curve. However, when shorter-term bonds are priced higher than long bonds as was the case recently for Canadian government bonds, the yield curves downwards along the y-axis forming an inverted yield curve.

The recent inversion of the Canadian yield curve marks the first time in over a decade that this event has occurred. The last time it happened was in 2007 and was followed shortly afterwards by the so-called “Great Recession” of 2008. It is also worth noting that Canada is the only developed country to have recently seen its yield curve invert.

What Does This Mean for Canadian Homebuyers?

The shape of the yield curve has two possible implications. For starters, an inverted yield curve suggests a general lack of optimism in the economy over the longer term and this often factors into the mindset of investors. In some cases, it can even help fuel a general slowdown in economic activity including a pull back in stock prices.

Secondly, and of greater importance to home buyers, the yield curve benchmarks other interest rates including bank lending rates and mortgage rates. Retail mortgage rates are based partly on long-term bond rates so if the outlook for these bonds is weaker, this could be seen as having a dampening effect on mortgage interest rates.

Of course, the yield curve is just one of many indicators that economists typically refer to when projecting where the economy is headed. Like any predictive tool there is no guarantee that things will unfold as suggested, but investors should at least be aware of the possible implications suggested by the most recent yield curve formation.

 

This article has been prepared by Home Trust and may be freely shared.

18 May

Spring Housing Market

General

Posted by: Bill Yeung

April national home sales fell nearly 3% from March to April as prices continue to decline on a year-over-year basis.
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Dr. Sherry Cooper
This announcement is available in Autopilot as “SC 20180515 The Spring Housing Market Is Off To A Slow Start”

ICYMI: The Spring Housing Market Is Off To A Slow Start

April is usually the start of a spring housing market ramp-up, but this year the new mortgage stress test and rising mortgage rates have continued to be a negative factor. Those expecting an early-stage pick-up marking an end to the payback for sales pulled forward into the fourth quarter of last year have been sorely disappointed.

Local real estate boards in Toronto and Vancouver announced that activity was weak in both markets in April–down just over 32% in Toronto and by 27.4% in Vancouver relative to a year ago. In Toronto, the weakness in April reflected at least in part a decline in new listings as would-be sellers might still find it hard to list at today’s lower prices for single-family homes.

Price-wise, developments last month should please policy-makers. Toronto’s aggregate benchmark price fell below year-ago levels (which constituted all-time highs in the area) for the second-straight month by 5.2%—providing some much-needed affordability relief. Single-detached prices (down 10.3% year-over-year) contrasted starkly with condo prices (up 10.2%). On a year-over-year basis, the drop in the aggregate price virtually matched the decline recorded during the 2008-09 recession.

The annual rate of benchmark price increases in the Vancouver region has slowed as well in the past two months. In April, that rate eased back below 15% for the first time since November last year. The deceleration isn’t doing much yet to improve affordability in the area, but it will be considered a sign that the market might be changing course away from overheating. The suite of market-cooling measures announced in the 2018 BC budget is poised to keep prices on this decelerating path over the coming months.

On a national basis, data released today by the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) show a 2.9% decline in home sales from March to April to the lowest level in more than five years (see chart below). About 60% of all local housing markets reported fewer sales, led by the Fraser Valley, Calgary, Ottawa and Montreal.

Actual (not seasonally adjusted) resale activity was down nearly 14% compared to April of last year and hit a seven-year low for the month. It also stood almost 7% below the 10-year average for the month.

Activity was below year-ago levels in about 60% of all local markets, led overwhelmingly by the Lower Mainland of British Columbia and by markets in and around Ontario’s Greater Golden Horseshoe (GGH) region.

As expected, this year’s new stress test lowered activity not just in the red-hot markets, but it has destabilized market balance for housing in Alberta, Saskatchewan and Newfoundland and Labrador about which CREA warned the government. As provinces whose economic prospects have faced difficulties because they are closely tied to those of natural resources, it is puzzling that the government would describe the effect of its new policy as intended consequences,” said Gregory Klump, CREA’s Chief Economist.

New Listings

The number of newly listed homes declined 4.8% in April. Having reached a nine-year low for the month, new listings stood 12% below the 10-year monthly moving average.

With sales having fallen by less than new listings, the national sales-to-new listings ratio firmed slightly to 53.7% in April compared to 52.6% in March. The long-term average for the measure is 53.4%.  Based on a comparison of the sales-to-new listings ratio with its long-term average, about 60% of all local markets were in balanced market territory in April 2018.

The number of months of inventory is another important measure of the balance between housing supply and demand. It represents how long it would take to liquidate existing inventories at the current rate of sales activity. There were 5.6 months of inventory on a national basis at the end of April 2018, the highest level since September 2015. The long-term average for the measure is 5.2 months.

Home Prices

On a national basis, the Aggregate Composite MLS Home Price Index (HPI) rose 1.5% year-over-year (y/y) in April 2018. This marks one full year of decelerating y/y gains. It was also the smallest y/y gain in prices since October 2009.

Decelerating y/y home price gains largely reflect trends among GGH housing markets tracked by the index. Home prices in the region have stabilized and have begun trending higher on a monthly basis; however, rapid price gains recorded one year ago have contributed to deteriorating y/y price comparisons.

Condo apartment units again posted the most substantial y/y price gains in April (+14.7%), followed by townhouse/row units (+6.5%). By contrast, one-storey and two-storey single-family home prices were down (-1.1% and -4.8% y/y respectively).

Benchmark home prices in April were up from year-ago levels in 9 of the 15 markets tracked by the index.

Composite benchmark home prices in the Lower Mainland of British Columbia continue to trend upward after having dipped briefly in the second half of 2016 (Greater Vancouver (GVA): +14.3% y/y; Fraser Valley: +22.7% y/y). Apartment and townhouse/row units have been mainly driving this regional trend while single-family home prices in the GVA have stabilized. In the Fraser Valley, single-family home prices have now also begun to rise.

Benchmark home prices continued to rise by about 14% on a y/y basis in Victoria and by about 20% elsewhere on Vancouver Island.

Within the GGH region, price gains have slowed considerably on a y/y basis but remain above year-ago levels in Guelph (+5.9%). By contrast, home prices in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA), Oakville-Milton and Barrie and District were down from where they stood one year earlier (GTA: -5.2% y/y; Oakville-Milton: -8.7% y/y; Barrie and District: -8.4% y/y). This reflects rapid price gains recorded one year ago and masks recent month-over-month price gains in these markets.

Calgary and Edmonton benchmark home prices were again little changed on a y/y basis (Calgary: +0.1% y/y; Edmonton: -0.9% y/y), while prices in Regina and Saskatoon remained down from year-ago levels (-6.5% y/y and -3.4% y/y, respectively).

Benchmark home prices rose by 8.4% y/y in Ottawa (led by a 9.4% increase in two-storey single-family home prices), by 6.3% in Greater Montreal (driven by a 7.3% increase in two-storey single-family home prices) and by 4.2% in Greater Moncton (led by a 5.6% increase in one-storey single-family home prices). (Table 1).

Bottom Line

Housing markets continue to adjust to regulatory and government tightening as well as to higher mortgage rates. The speculative frenzy has cooled, and multiple bidding situations are no longer commonplace in Toronto and surrounding areas. Home prices in the detached single-family space will remain soft for some time, and residential markets are now balanced or favour buyers across the country. The hottest sector remains condos where buyers face limited supply.

Owing to the housing slowdown, a general slowing in the Canadian economy and significant trade uncertainty, the Bank of Canada will continue to be cautious. But as inflation trends higher, we expect the Bank to hike interest rates once again this summer and possibly in the fall as well.

Last week, the Bank of Canada increased the qualifying (posted five-year fixed) mortgage rate from 5.14% to 5.34% in response to benchmark mortgage rate increases at most of the chartered banks. TD bank led the rate hikes when it increased its posted rate for a five-year fixed mortgage by a whopping 47 basis points to 5.59% on April 25.

The central bank qualifying rate is separate from the actual mortgage rates offered by banks to borrowers but is used to assess homebuyers who are seeking loans. The higher rates come as an estimated 47% of all existing mortgages will need to be refinanced in 2018, up from the 25 to 35% range in a typical year, according to a recent CIBC Capital Markets report.

A rise in government bond yields preceded the slew of bank hikes. The yield on the Government of Canada benchmark five-year bond was 2.25% this morning, compared to 1.02% a year earlier. Fixed-rate mortgages tend to move with government bond yields of a similar term, reflecting the change in borrowing costs.

Competitive pressure among the banks appears to be heating up as BMO last week offered what is possibly the largest-ever discount on variable rate loans. The bank is promoting a variable five-year mortgage at 2.45%, a full percentage point below its own benchmark rate. This morning, TD Bank joined is rival in offering a highly discounted variable mortgage rate effective until the end of the month. Canada’s lenders often provide special spring mortgage rates as homebuying activity picks up. These moves come amid slowing mortgage growth.

Borrowers still have to qualify based on the much higher Bank of Canada posted rate of 5.34%.

Dr. Sherry Cooper
Chief Economist, Dominion Lending Centres
drcooper@dominionlending.ca
11 May

JOBS

General

Posted by: Bill Yeung

Jobless Rate Remains At 40-Year Low As Wage Growth Accelerates

Statistics Canada announced this morning that employment was virtually unchanged in April (down 1,100) following a surge in March and the unemployment rate remained at 5.8%–its lowest level in four decades. Wages growth accelerated signalling tight labour markets. April’s stall was only the second time since mid-2016 that the job market did not grow.

On a positive note, the job losses were in part-time work, which registered a 30,000 downfall. Full-time employment was up 28,800, which is near average over the past 12 months
When labour markets approach full capacity, job growth stalls as job vacancies become increasingly more difficult to fill. This excess demand for labour pushes up wage rates to lure qualified workers from other jobs.

This trend poses a substantial challenge for the Bank of Canada as inflation is now at or above its 2% target. Economic activity has slowed this year, and considerable uncertainty remains, especially concerning NAFTA. In the face of a meaningful slowdown in housing and consumer spending, the Bank is reticent to hike interest rates too quickly as mortgage rates are already rising.

The posted five-year fixed mortgage rate rose to 5.34% this week, as banks have tightened credit conditions and five-year bond yields have edged upward. Borrowers must qualify for mortgages based on the posted mortgage rate, and one-in-three borrowers have purportedly already been squeezed out of the housing market.

Apropos the housing slowdown, employment declines were most significant in the construction industry, which suffered an 18,900 job loss offsetting the gains in March. Services-related employment was up 14,800 in April.
Since the start of the year, Canada’s labour force has shrunk by 25,500, and the number of jobs is down by 41,400.

The average hourly wage in April was C$27.02, up 3.6% from a year earlier. That’s the fastest pace of growth since 2012.

Employment Was Little Changed In Most Provinces

In April, 4,100 more people worked in Manitoba, all in full-time employment. The unemployment rate was virtually unchanged at 6.1%. Compared with April 2017, the number of employed people in the province increased by 5,900 (+0.9%).

In Nova Scotia, employment increased by 2,700 in April. The unemployment rate continued on a downward trend, falling by 0.7 percentage points to 6.7%, the lowest rate since comparable data became available in 1976. On a year-over-year basis, employment was up 8,000 (+1.8%), primarily due to a strong upward trend in full-time employment that began in the autumn of 2017.

There were 4,900 fewer employed people in Saskatchewan in April, and the unemployment rate rose 0.5 percentage points to 6.3%. Compared with April 2017, employment was little changed in the province.
In Ontario, employment held steady in April, and the unemployment rate was little changed at 5.6%. On a year-over-year basis, employment in the province rose by 133,000 or 1.9%, all in full-time work.

In Quebec, both employment and the unemployment rate were little changed in April. Compared with 12 months earlier, the number of people working in the province was up 73,000, mainly as a result of growth in the second and fourth quarters of 2017. Over the same period, the unemployment rate declined by 1.0 percentage points to 5.4%.

The number of people working in British Columbia was little changed in April, as growth in full-time work was offset by a decline in part-time employment. At the same time, the unemployment rate increased by 0.3 percentage points to 5.0% as more people looked for work. Employment in the province has been relatively flat since June 2017, while on a year-over-year basis it was up 23,000 (+0.9%).

Dr. Sherry Cooper
Chief Economist, Dominion Lending Centres
10 May

Are You Prepared for the Top Cybersecurity Threats of 2018?

General

Posted by: Bill Yeung

Are You Prepared for the Top Cybersecurity Threats of 2018?

Are You Prepared for the Top Cybersecurity Threats of 2018?

David Hold | May 01, 2018

As if your IT team, security experts and executives didn’t have enough to worry about, there are a host of new cybersecurity threats hitting the market or escalating globally. In response, companies are expected to spend more than $1 trillion on cybersecurity in the next three years.

Key Facts on Cybersecurity in 2018

•  Companies will spend $1 trillion on cybersecurity in the next five years.
•  Whaling or business email compromises cost businesses $5 billion.
•  Ransomware, including ransoms and downtime, tops $5 billion in impact.
•  IoT security spending is predicted to surpass a half billion dollars this year. 

At a recent cybersecurity conference, a top executive from an American firm told a terrifying story. His company had been undergoing a series of high-profile merges and acquisitions. Much of the activity was kept under wraps, to prevent the competition from moving in.

One morning, the company’s controller was in the office working on the month-end close. The CFO was traveling in a different time zone and not easy to reach. An urgent message appeared in the controller’s inbox, stating that a time-sensitive and top secret deal had been approved.

It included details for a large sum of money to be wired immediately. As the controller picked up his phone to call the CFO for approval, his office phone rang.

The caller identified himself as a consultant from a top firm that had been working with the company on different ventures. The person’s name wasn’t familiar, but the consulting firm was.

The caller stated that he had just spoken with the CFO, and she had asked him to call the controller to walk him through the transfer. If the funds weren’t in an account in mere minutes, the deal, the controller’s job, and the company’s very future was in peril.

Luckily, rather than take immediate action, the controller put his caller on hold and ran down to the hall to the CEO. He was in the office and didn’t know anything about the deal. They quickly called the CFO, and it became clear that this was a case of “whaling.”

A disaster was narrowly averted thanks to the quick thinking of an employee. Yet many companies have hit headlines in recent years after employees have fallen for similar scams.

Let’s take a look at the top cybersecurity threats for 2018 – and what companies can do to prepare and protect their assets.

Make sure to check out our previous cybersecurity posts “4 Tips for Defending Against Cyber Threats” and “Our Top 10 Healthcare Cybersecurity Questions.”

Email Security Compromises and HIPAA Violations

1. Whaling and Business Email Compromise (BEC)

So-called whaling, described above, has been identified as a significant threat. The FBI has been tracking this issue since 2013 and has seen a sharp escalation in just the past few years. Whaling occurs when criminals rely on deception to convince an unsuspecting company or employee that a request is legitimate.

They combine a variety of tactics, from technology that lets them spoof emails to gathering data online and via social media to effectively impersonate a decision maker. Social engineering and technology blend to create the ultimate threat.

In a statement, the FBI notes: “BEC is a serious threat on a global scale. And the criminal organizations that perpetrate these frauds are continually honing their techniques to exploit unsuspecting victims.”

The latest estimates reported by IDG suggest that whaling costs organizations more than $5 billion. 

The best ways to fight back against whaling are multifold. Employee education is critical. It’s also important to have clear business procedures that don’t allow large financial transactions or data transfers to occur without multiple sign-offs.

There should also be a procedure for reporting and investigating questionable requests when they are made.

Finally, there are email tools that alert users to potentially spoofed messages and even leverage watermarked “stationary” to indicate formal communications.

Ransomeware Cybersecurity Threats are Increasing in 2018

2. Ransomware locks down data

A ransomware attack usually starts innocently enough. A member of your team receives an email or visits a website. They download a file or click on a link. Suddenly, the entire computer system — or worse, company files or network — locks up.

A message appears. Unless a ransom is paid within a certain period of time, the data will remain locked and unavailable. It some cases, it will even be deleted if the ransom isn’t paid.

Ransomware becomes even more insidious when demands are paid and then further payment is demanded. When does it stop? Ransomware can paralyze an entire system and put your data at serious risk.

In the healthcare industry, ransomeware attacks have seriously impacted patient care. The threat to the bottom line also can’t be overlooked. It’s believed that ransomware cost more than $5 billion in damages in 2017 alone.

Companies are taking bold steps to prevent the inadvertent downloading of ransomware, from implementing employee education programs to using tools to help identify potential threats.

Encrypting files and maintaining cloud-based backups so that any compromised data exists in another setting can help reduce the impact and speed recovery if the unthinkable should occur.

Firewalls, virus protection and file scanning for email is also essential. Companies are also looking at encrypted fax as a better way to share documents, without the risk of spreading embedded ransomware often found in emails.

IOT networks cybersecurity risks

3. IoT networks are at risk

The Internet of Things (IoT) is predicted to grow to more than 20 billion connected devices by 2020 — and other estimates range even higher. These devices serve a wide variety of functions throughout the business world.

They collect and relay marketing information and customer data. Behind the scenes, they’re used for everything from monitoring the temperature in shipping containers to notifying companies before an equipment failure occurs.

They’re saving organizations a significant amount of money, and as a result, becoming central to the way companies do business.

Because IoT devices are connected, each and every point in that network of billions of little connected dots represents a potential access point for cybercriminals.

A top prediction for 2018 is that companies that rely on IoT devices are going to find these networks under attack.

IoT devices can be used to wreak havoc, overload networks or lock down essential equipment for financial gain.

In one telling example, a major Casino recently had its high-roller database hacked…the point of entry being an IoT temperature sensor the lobby aquarium that was overlooked by everyone, except for the fish, and the cyber-thieves.

In response, companies are spending over $500 million in IoT related cybersecurity activities.

Companies that are investing in the Internet of Things need to ensure that security is a top focus. Steps to take involve carefully vetting vendors for their security standards and ensuring that ongoing steps are being taken to prevent breaches.

Existing IoT networks should also be tested for vulnerabilities and issues, and have necessary upgrades made. Investments go much further when used for prevention than they do for damage control.

Identity verification to stop cyber theft

4. Identity verification matters

Techrepublic notes that a top potential threat is identity verification. Companies often rely on government systems or organizations such as the major credit bureaus to verify identity and gather data on customers, employees and partners.

Yet major breaches have shown that these systems aren’t failproof. Many companies have begun to take steps to find alternate ways to verify identities.

They write, “Forrester predicts that in 2018, we will see an expansion of identity verification services to large banks such as Bank of America, Capital One, Citi, and Wells Fargo. Researchers also said that customers will be able to use bank-issued credentials to log into government services. Blockchain will also likely emerge to help verify identities based on federated, consortium-based transaction data.”

To prepare for this, organizations should consider their reliance on these systems for identity verification. Developing an alternate strategy is key.

A number of companies are emerging — in some cases, based on blockchain technology — to provide identity verification services. Look for partners that have strong security services and can meet your business needs.

Coud fax helps improve busines -processes and workflows

5. Core business processes must be updated

The biggest cybersecurity topic this year isn’t exotic; it’s not about foreign entities disrupting elections or dealing with expensive upgrades. It’s the simple fact that many companies have outdated business processes that put them at risk.

One of the biggest trends now taking place is that IT directors and C-level management are taking a closer look at where vulnerabilities can occur in their organizations.

These include:

•  Ensuring that all data is backed up securely in an encrypted cloud system, with a reputable company;
•  Upgrading outdated fax procedures to use encrypted, digital faxing software that’s designed with cybersecurity and regulatory compliance in mind;
•  Developing employee education programs, to help introduce and train best practices into the workplace;
•  Creating schedules of testing for vulnerabilities on a regular basis and periodically making improvements.

Cybersecurity is finally becoming a top consideration for many businesses, whether they’re maintaining existing IT infrastructure or upgrading to emerging next-gen technology.

They are learning to take proactive steps to understand and anticipate the growing threat environment in order to effectively safeguard private customer information now, and for the foreseeable future.

9 May

RATES HELD STEADY NOW, BUT

General

Posted by: Bill Yeung

RATES HELD STEADY NOW, BUT GRADUAL HIKES SIGNALLED

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) met this week for the second time under the chairmanship of Jerome Powell. In a unanimous decision, the Committee left the target range for the federal funds rate unchanged at 1-1/2 to 1-3/4 percent. Unlike the Bank of Canada, which has a single objective of targeting inflation at roughly 2 percent, the Fed has a dual statutory mandate to both foster price stability and maximum employment.

U.S. labour conditions remain strong, and the economy continues to grow at a moderate pace. Inflation has now moved to close to 2 percent. The growth of household spending has moderated from their strong fourth-quarter pace, although business fixed investment continued to grow rapidly.

“The Committee expects that economic conditions will evolve in a manner that will warrant further gradual increases in the federal funds rate; the federal funds rate is likely to remain, for some time, below levels that are expected to prevail in the longer run. However, the actual path of the federal funds rate will depend on the economic outlook as informed by incoming data.”

The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury notes slipped slightly to 2.96 percent following the release of the statement, while the S&P 500 Index of U.S. stocks climbed to its highest level of the day and the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell.

U.S. economic growth cooled in the first quarter to an annualized pace of 2.3 percent after averaging higher than 3 percent in the previous three quarters.

Expectations are that the Fed will hike rates once again at the next meeting in June. The Fed signaled in March that they expect to raise rates three or four times this year. They hiked the target federal funds rate three times last year and began to gradually reduce their holdings of securities.

The Bank of Canada will likely raise rates twice this year–probably in the summer and fall. As always, central bank policy will remain data dependent and will adjust with any significant changes in the economic backdrop. It is widely expected that the NAFTA negotiations will be satisfactorily completed in the near future, but that still remains a wildcard.

Increased U.S. protectionist fervour is a significant negative for the global economy. Today, 1,100 U.S. economists signed a letter to President Trump warning him of the dangers of tariffs, reminding him that the 1930 Smoot-Hawley tariffs led to a sustained economic depression.

Dr. Sherry Cooper

DR. SHERRY COOPER

Chief Economist, Dominion Lending Centres
Sherry is an award-winning authority on finance and economics with over 30 years of bringing economic insights and clarity to Canadians.

7 May

B.C Speculation Tax

General

Posted by: Bill Yeung

CMBA – BRITISH COLUMBIA  
ADVOCATING ON BEHALF OF OUR MEMBERS
MAY, 2018
BC GOVERNMENT URGED TO SCRAP THE SPECULATION TAX
The Canadian Mortgage Brokers Association – British Columbia was an early and vocal opponent of the BC government’s proposal to levy unfair new taxes on homeowners in communities across BC.

This campaign has been joined by several partner organizations, who combined effortshave facilitated the submission of over 14,406 letters to government.

CMBA-BC is pleased to be a part of an influential coalition of leading organziations calling for the BC government to Scrap The Speculation Tax, including:

  • UDI Capital Region, Pacific Region and Okanagan
  • Kelowna Chamber of Commerce
  • Independent Contractors of British Columbia
  • Canadian Home Builders Association – Central Okanagan
  • Nanaimo Chamber of Commerce
  • Peachland Chamber of Commerce
  • Business Council of British Columbia
  • Canadian Taxpayers Federation
  • Vancouver Island Construction Association
  • Okanagan Mainline Real Estate Board
  • Downtown Victoria Business Association
  • Uptown Rutland Business Association
  • Victoria Real Estate Board
1 May

SUBJECT TO FINANCING- A MUST!

General

Posted by: Bill Yeung

SUBJECT TO FINANCING- A MUST!

With most people who are new to real estate and looking for their first home (or possibly second), one of the most significant times is when your offer to buy is accepted by a seller. Unfortunately, that moment is quickly followed by stress, as not many people know what comes next- securing financing. 99% of the time a realtor will ask you if you have been qualified by a bank or a mortgage broker before they write an offer on your behalf. What should be told to you, the client, by the realtor and your mortgage broker is that you need to have a subject to financing condition in your offer.

In order for someone to receive a mortgage from a lender, they need to meet the lender’s (and some times the insurer’s) conditions. Usually, these all revolve around a borrower’s down payment money, their income as well as employment, and the property they are making an offer on. If you make an offer on a home and it is accepted, but for example the lender doesn’t like the property because the strata board doesn’t have enough money in their contingency fund to fix the leaking roof in the next 12 months, they could turn down your application and not lend you money.

If you don’t have the money, you don’t get the home. That is why you have a subject to financing condition, so if for any reason, you can’t meet the lender’s requirements with your income, down payment, or if the property is unacceptable to them or the insurer, you can cancel your offer without any hassle or loss of deposit.

What happens if you make a subject free offer? If you make an offer on a home and it doesn’t have a subject to financing condition in it, that house is now yours once the offer is accepted. Your deposit is no longer yours, and you have to come up with the remaining money. If you cannot and are unable to complete the purchase, the seller may file a lawsuit against you for damages as they have now taken their home off the market potentially losing out on the ability to sell their home to someone else while they waited for you to get financing.

Always, always, always have a condition in your offer that states subject to financing and allow yourself 3 to 5 business days. If you go in without that fail safe and it turns out you really need it, you will potentially be on the hook and if the seller wishes, he or she can sue you for any potential losses. Subject to financing is a must! If you have any questions, contact a Dominion Lending Centres mortgage professional.

Ryan Oake

RYAN OAKE

Dominion Lending Centres – Accredited Mortgage Professional
Ryan is part of DLC Producers West Financial based in Langley, BC.

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1 May

Rising Rates

General

Posted by: Bill Yeung

FIXED RATES ARE ON THE RISE. ARE YOU READY?

With the Bank of Canada holding rates steady this April, the same is not the case for the bond market, which impacts fixed rates.
In every interest-rate market there are many factors leading to and increase and we are hoping to provide a little bit of clarity on what is happening and what it means to you and your loved ones.
At this time, we see fixed rates increasing as the bond market increases, and our economists anticipate two more Bank of Canada increases of prime rate by the end of 2018.
Why do we note this information and how does it relate to you?

If you are in a variable rate, you will want to:
1. Review your lock-in options. Knowing it’s unlikely the prime rate will reduce and fixed rates are on the rise, there could be a sweet spot to review your options now.
2. If you decide not to lock in, it’s time to review your discount to see if a higher one can be obtained elsewhere.

Locking in won’t be for everyone, especially if you are making higher payments and your mortgage is below $300,000, which most people fit and will continue on that path. Locking in will be up to a 1% higher rate than you are likely presently paying.
If however rates raising another 50 basis points this year and knowing you can likely lock in below 4% now is most attractive to you, this may be your time. The next announcement from the BOC on Prime Rates is May 30th 2018

If you are in a fixed rate:
1. If you obtained your mortgage in the last year, stay put.
2. If you are looking to move up the property ladder or consolidate debt, get your application in to us ASAP so we can hold options for up to 120 days.
3. If you are up for renewal this year or know someone who is, secure your options now with us as we keep a watchful eye on the market.

Please reach out to a Dominion Lending Centres mortgage professional so we can help ensure you or a loved is on the right path in our ever changing market.

Angela Calla

ANGELA CALLA

Dominion Lending Centres – Accredited Mortgage Professional
Angela is part of DLC Angela Calla Mortgage Team based in Port Coquitlam, BC.

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